m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Four for Monday

1.33 Hall Green T1 DRUMSCRAW TARN

8.36 Nottingham T1 BALLYMAC ACE

8.40 Shelbourne Park T3 SHELBOURNE BONUS

10.10 Harolds Cross T5 SHELBOURNE BESS

National Puppy Stake

Starts tomorrow night and I fancy a couple at decent prices.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK 9.15 FIDO DIDO

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK 9.30 BALLYMAC TIPP

Premiership 2009/10: Week 12

While not that hot on football as I am on the gridiron, I am straightening out and this season's Premiership is beginning (to me anyway) to become readable.

I'm not sure what the PL record is for draws, but this season there seems to be a lot of em. This week looks a bumper week.

RECOMMENDATION: BIRMINGHAM v FULHAM DRAW 23/10 General

RECOMMENDATION: BURNLEY v ASTON VILLA DRAW 12/5 General

RECOMMENDATION: BOLTON v BLACKBURN DRAW 12/5 General

RECOMMENDATION: HULL v WEST HAM DRAW 12/5  General

RECOMMENDATION: STOKE v PORTSMOUTH DRAW 12/5 General

Premiership 2009/10: 30 BETS 12 WINS;  LOSS 0.91pts

NFL 2009/10: Week 11

3 wins out of 4 last week, and if Jay Cutler hadnt thrown 5 interception passes (including one in the dying seconds) I would have had a clean sweep. Still the season continues to roll nicely. So much so that I am increasing my action this weekend.

Indianapolis havent really beaten anyone on the road.  They are 9-0 and 4-0 on their travels, but despite a 4pt win early in the season at Dolphins and an easy win in Phoenix against a Cards team that loves the road, they have only beaten St Louis and Tennessee when away from home.

Their last 3 games have been at home and they were not that convincing and winnnig by small margins against the 49ers(4pts), Texans (3pts) and the Patriots by the narrowest margin and were very fortunate in that game.

Ravens defence shut out the poor Browns last week, but face a must win game here if they are to stay in touch with Pittsburgh and Cincinatti (who have done the double over them this year.  In 3 of their 4 games at home they have scored 30 or more points - the only defeat being v the Bengals.  Pittsburgh are in town next week followed by the Bears and Lions, so expect Baltimore to be a fortress from hereon.

RECOMMENDATION: BALTIMORE TO WIN 21/20 Boylesports

No matter how poor Philly have been, they cannot lose to Chicago.  How Vegas is only making it 2pts I have no idea as that is generally what a side receives for being at home.  Looks a rick to me.

RECOMMENDATION: PHILADELPHIA (-3pts) Evens Stan James

I think we are seeing a Titans revival. Tennessee were so good last year but this year-awful.  I was in New York to see them and they were fairly poor.  But they appear to be turning it around. OK Houston are a limited bunch, but they are on a winning season thus far, and are fresh off a bye week. I'm finding it hard to pick a team here, but expect a point fest.

RECOMMENDATION: OVER 47.5pts 10/11 Paddy Power

Cincinnatti are making people take note. They have just beat the defensive kings of Pittsburgh and Baltimore (completing doubles over both)  They themselves have allowed the 2nd lowest amount of points. Their recievers are on fire.  So all points to a Bengals win in Oakland...maybe.  I don't think they are capable of routing too many sides - and for that reason they could be taken on in the spread market where they concede 9.5pts, but as they have only won by over 10pts once this season in their 7 victories, I expect a low scoring win for Cincinnatti. I was going to bet on unders but at 36 there is little margin for error, instead I am going to back Cincinatti to be leading at Half Time, which they normally do, before easing off the pedal a bit.

RECOMMENDATION: Cincinatti (-6.5) Half Time 10/11 General

Detroit and Cleveland, two poor sides.  But Cleveland are very poor.  Detroit to win a dour match.

RECOMMENDATION: DETROIT (-3.5pts) Evens Boylesports
RECOMMENDATION: UNDER 38.5pts Evens Totesport


NFL 2009/2010 Season: 30 bets 19 wins Profit +10.51pts
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts
NFL 2009 YTD 35 bets; 21 wins; Profit +12.21pts

Taking stock

After a very good 2007 and 2008 punting wise, 2009 went the other way. I have lost 120pts this year and the balance is now -30pts since this tipping blog started.

All is not lost however - here are my outstanding bets for this year and I would say i can be confident of some return.

NFL Divisional Accumulator	Giants, Cardinals, Saints and Broncos	2pts at 6.92/1	Will be close
NFL Ante Post	Panthers NFC South	3pts at 12/5	Dead
NFL Ante Post	Cowboys NFC Central	3pts at 7/2	Will be close
NFL Ante Post	Cardinals NFC West	3pts at 13/8	Nearly there
NFL Ante Post	Colts AFC South	5pts at 13/8	Winner alright methinks
NFL Ante Post	Larry Fitzgerald Most Recieving Yards	1pt EW at 13/2	Will go very close
NFL Ante Post	Tom Brady Most Passing Yards	2pts 6/1	Will go very close
NFL Ante Post	Kurt Warner EW Most Passing Yards	1pt EW at 17/2	He's up there - possible
NFL Ante Post	Jets to win 8 or more matches	5pts at Evens	stuck on 4 games with 6 to go - possible
SPL	Hearts without Old Firm	5pts at 7/4	Dead
Budesliga Ante Post	Bayern Munich	5pts at 0.76/1	Dodgy - slow start
Serie A Ante Post	Juventus Place	2pts at 1/2 odds 1,2 100/30	Looks good
Serie A Ante Post	Juventus Win	2pts 100/30	Dodgy - 7 pts behind
La Liga Ante Post	Barcelona	5pts 10/11	Top of La Liga - looking good
Golden Boot	Defoe Win	1pt Win 25/1	Started well - looking at laying off possibilities
Golden Boot	Defoe Place	1pt Place 1/4 odds 1234 25/1
Golden Boot	Bent Win	1pt win 40/1	Started well - looking at laying off possibilities
Golden Boot	Bent Place	1pt Place 1/4 odds 1234 40/1
Premiership Ante Post	Portsmouth to be relegated	5pts at 11/4	Bottom currently
Premiership Ante Post	Wolves to be relegated	5pts at 6/4	In the bottom 3 currently
Football Ante Post	Man Utd to win a trophy	5pts at 8/11	Probable
Premiership Ante Post	Fulham top 6	1pt at 12/1	Dead
Premiership Ante Post	Fulham top half	5pts at 7/4	Possible
Premiership Ante Post	Liverpool to finish above Arsenal	5pts at 4/7	Not looking good
Premiership Ante Post	Chelsea	2pts at 9/4	Looking good
Premiership Ante Post	Liverpool	2pts at 4/1	Dead
Premiership Ante Post	Man Utd	2pts at 23/10	Dodgy
Six Nations 2010 Outright	Ireland	1pt at 6/1	Waiting for a market so I can lay for profit

Tomorrow night's Sky card

Here's tomorrow night's card at Doncaster which highlights the Yorkshire St Leger Final and the College Causeway and Killahan Phanter Unraced Puppy Final.  Please post your selections on this thread.

Doncaster Sky Card

Last week's results were as follows:

• Jonathon Kay 4/6; +3.79
• manaboutdogblog 1/2; -0.71
• Tony Bullen 3/8; -0.71
• Ken 0/2; -2.00
• Claretfan 1/6; -3.00
• Jimbo 2/10; ML -3.75; SP -4.00
• Jonathon Hobbs 1/8; -6.71
• Peter Meldrum 1/8; -6.71

Please note Uncle Ollie and Droopys Kentucky were selected at higher morning prices but are paid at SP because of Non Runners rule.

Here's the latest table - poor old Hobbsy and Meldrum have had a very bad year.

POS	TIPSTER	WINS	TIPS	STRIKE RATE	MORNING LINE P&L	SP P&L
1	Tony Bullen	66	157	42.04%	6.88	6.88
2	Phil Donaldson	6	18	33.33%	9.25	4.50
3	ClaretFan	30	121	24.79%	35.99	1.39
4	Patrick Kelly	3	8	37.50%	0.75	0.75
5	Darrell Williams	13	35	37.14%	-2.36	-2.36
6	SkyDogsBlog	27	100	27.00%	15.06	-2.95
7	manaboutdogblog	42	126	33.33%	-3.53	-13.31
8	Richard Birch	22	77	28.57%	-20.95	-20.95
9	Jonathon Kay	76	218	34.86%	-13.18	-22.99
10	Mick Livesey	27	102	26.47%	-5.87	-24.94
11	Jimbo	68	259	26.25%	-22.18	-40.55
12	Jonathon Hobbs	69	244	28.28%	-53.85	-53.85
13	Peter Meldrum	32	165	19.39%	-35.25	-64.47

Farloe Lee for the Eclipse

Starts tonight and Charlie Lister's son of Brett Lee loves Nottingham.

He is a very nice price at 7/1 with the sponsors and I will have a bit of that.

My Saturday dogs

RECOMMENDATION: With a decent run to the bend Shelbourne Bess will win in Thurles

RECOMMENDATION: Black Betsy is well graded at Nottingham and I will be surprised if she doesnt progress right through the grades.

RECOMMENDATION: Almost Chilli will bounce back to form and win at HQ

RECOMMENDATION: Deanridge Fury will win again - all eyes will be on Airport Pilot

Golden oldies?

2 veterans I expect to win tonight.

720 Newcastle (Non Sky Race) Boherbradda Mac 5/4 William Hill

819 Swindon Brickfield Class (SP)

NFL 2009/10: Week 10

A welcome addition this week to our screens will be Thursday night football and that means an earlier start for punters, tipsters and fantasy football enthusiasts - 3 days early in fact. 

Chicago go to the 49ers who are on a 4 game losing streak on Thursday night, and I fancy the Bears to leave with their season still alive, and San Francisco to be in trouble. The Bears are 6/4 with Ladbrokes and Hills while on the spread they get a 3 pt edge. I will back them straight.

RECOMMENDATION: CHICAGO 6/4 Ladbrokes

I like the look of Baltimore on the road at hapless Cleveland and they are judged to be just 10.5pts superior by Vegas.

RECOMMENDATION: BALTIMORE (-10.5pts) General

Philadelphia are a poor side (as I blogged last week) and they are no bet at all on the road to San Diego. San Diego -2.5pts is a must bet.

RECOMMENDATION: SAN DIEGO (-2.5pts) 10/11 General

Arizona are looking like a Superbowl side again, and they must be fancied to tonk Seattle in Phoenix - against the 8.5pts spread looks the bet here. This is a divisional battle and a Cards win will damage Seattle big time.

RECOMMENDATION: ARIZONA (-9pts) Evens General

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 26 bets 16 wins Profit +8.60pts
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts
NFL 2009 YTD 31 bets; 18 wins; Profit +10.30pts