m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Shocks aplenty in SW19

My tip to make the semis Dinara Safina crashed out at the fourth round stage in a marathan match with little known Israeli 24th seed Sahar Peer who recorded a 7-5, 6-7, 8-6 victory.

The competition has an unfamiliar look to it now and we could see a Williams sisters final as both are brushing aside their opposition with ease.  Number 1 seed Ana Ivanovic was crushed by China's Jie Zheng and she joined pre-tournament favourite Maria Sharapova on an early flight home.

My remaining bet on Svetlana Kuznetzova looks ok as she had an easy straight sets third round victory over Czech Barbora Zahlavova Strycova and meets Agnieszka Radwanska from Poland in the fouthe round.  If she wins she will face Serena Williams in the Quarter Final.

I am in credit for June which is nice for a change and even if the Russian no.4 seed bites the dust, I will still have a small monthly profit.

Betfair's guide to making it pay at football

Just 7 weeks til the start of the Premiership season so....

http://betting.betfair.com/football/matt-talks-stats/facts-figures-and-fun-making-money-from-football-b-130508.html

“Magical” Matthew Walton reviews a number of previous football articles which YOU should be using to make yourself bigger profits

The purpose of our articles is to inform, entertain but, most importantly of all, to educate.
What we set out to do is provide thought-provoking features which illustrate new ways to approach your betting. Ways which ultimately make YOU more money.

Throughout the latter part of the season a number of topics have been highlighted and discussed with the use of statistical data. A handful have been revisited below as they have been proven to find YOU winners and, what’s more, they will do so time and again in the future.

Whether you’re a backer or a layer. If it’s in-running or ante-post you prefer, there’s something for everyone in these articles. Read them at your leisure, come back to them later for updates as to your own betting techniques but do make sure to approach your betting on Betfair with some knowledge of these discussions. After all, being better informed than the next backer is what it’s all about.

Below you’ll see half a dozen previous features which cover different areas of football betting. Study them and see how they can generate money when applied to the markets which YOU regularly use on Betfair.

Consistently Inconsistent - Why Don’t All Referees Act The Same Way?

We posed the argument that the number of cards shown in a match is determined more by the referee, than the match itself. Strange, we argued that some arbiters always seem to get ‘quiet’ games. We suggested that if the ‘nice’ Mark Halsey reffed the recent Liverpool v Man City match then the make-up of cards could very well be low. He did officiate this match. And the number of cards? None. See the figures for yourself.

Correct Score Trends - The Search For Reliable Form

By comparing the correct score results of teams in general week-to-week league play, with their previous head-to-head form with a specific opponent, we endeavoured to calculate the most likely results of certain matches. We chose one match from each division … and made a profit. You too can use this technique to increase your chances of success when analysing league, cup of even international matches.

First Goalscorer - Are You Getting Full Value For Your Bet?

Again, simple analysis highlights good/bad value. The prime example in this market was Cristiano Ronaldo, a player constantly over-priced in the first goalscorer market. Yes, this may have been a ‘freakish’ run by the Portuguese player but it brought to light the simple fact that when you put statistics and betting markets side by side, often you’ll see blindingly obvious value staring you in the face. Read more and see what you’re missing!

Football Betting Really Is A Game Of Two Halves

The HT/FT bet is a favourite of many Betfair backers. However, it’s another market to treat with caution. Do your homework and understand that whilst it may appear the easy way to turn a 90 minute win bet at [1.50] into a HT/FT bet that pays [2.5] it’s not quite as easy as that. Even the best of sides don’t win both halves as often as you’d expect and even the worst don’t lose that many times either …

The ‘Top’ And ‘Bottom’ Of Making Money This Weekend

There are many ways to assess matches - lineups, current form, previous meetings, home/away statistics etc. This line of investigation split the Premier League into two halves, top and bottom, and illustrated how Sunderland [3.3], Chelsea [1.8], Aston Villa [1.72] etc were the good things of the day. It’s all about adding more layers of analysis to your betting and so making it better informed and more profitable!

Goals Change Games - But When Are They Scored?

A great article for you in-running backers. The spread of goals scored in matches, in terms of minutes, offers a great avenue for profit when you have the facts and figures at your fingertips. Did you know the highest percentage of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game? And the lowest in the first 15 minutes. Read this article and see why so many Betfair markets are open to in-running trades, given the right information.

And the wonderful thing about football betting? The fact that after one season ends we don’t have to wait too long until a new one swings into view.

The topics covered here are timeless and with just a quick refresher as to the current statistics they can make you money match-by-match, week-by-week, season-by-season.

 

Not a great day for the Russians

I did a very clever thing yesterday evening – I laid off some of my potential profit on Russia – and whilst I didn’t cash them in fully, I was mightily relieved, as Russia just didn’t turn up.

In possibly the bluntest performance of the knockout stages of any recent international tournament, the likes of Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko were invisible and Russia were soundly beaten 3-0 by a strong Spanish side. Fabregas in particular looked on top form. So my European Championship ‘book’ is not as healthy as I thought it would be, but no disasters really, I held my own and called most of it correctly.

In a massive shock (to some)Russian starlet Maria Sharapova (below )was knocked out of Wimbledon yesterday at the 2^nd round stage by compatriot Alla Kudryavtseva, the World No 154.

Sharapova, the World No 2 and top seed for this year’s Championship was hammered 6-2, 6-4, and I wonder is this a bit of the 'Anna Kournikova(below) Syndrome’. Maria spends more time on the catwalk than on showcourts these days and her tennis is suffering. She was muscled out of last month’s French Open by Dinara Safina as well, and there must be doubts over Sharapova’s resolve now.

I am disappointed a bit as we don’t get to see Sharapova strutting her stuff, and let’s face it she is one of the best looking sportstars on the circuit. However, my pre-tournament tip that fellow Russian Safina would make the semi finals looks almost nailed on at the moment. Safina cruised through her second round game yesterday against Su-Wei Hseih and I can’t see any obstacles along the way. Tipped at 13/2, she is a hot favourite to make the semis now.

My other selection to make the semis Svetlana Kuznetzova is also comfortably through in her quarter of the draw so I am hopeful of continuing my good run in tennis.

Ana Ivanovic was shaky in her match on Wednesday – hopefully she can improve for that fright – and I would love to see this exciting talent make it back to back grandslams. But I think we need to keep an eye on the Williams sisters who, ominously, are picking off their opposition at will and must have a great chance of taking a 7^th Wimbledon crown back across the Atlantic for the Williams family.

Spain v Russia

Licking my lips for a great game and I can't split these two sides despite Spain beating Russia 4-1 at the group stage.

Recommendation: Draw

Kuznetzova safely through to third round as Ivanovic scrapes home

Svetlana Kuznetzova, my selection, is safely through 6-2, 6-3 against Bondarenka and is on course for a clash with Serena Williams in the Quarter Finals. My other selection Darina Safina plays later on in her second round and should go through comfortably.

My favourite Ana Ivanovic(pictured), the world number 1, struggled this afternoon in her second round clash with French 29 year old Nathalie Dechy.  Ivanovic had to pull out all the stops in a thrilling match, eventually breaking the world ranked 104th Dechy to win 6-7, 7-6, 10-8.  She'll need plenty of rest after that one.

Golden Boot

I don't normally bet to lay off at a later stage, generally because the type of markets I get involved in don't lend themselves to laying off.  One good example for me to lay would be Russia who are in the semis and I have them at 28/1 E/W so if they progress I am on a winner, but I could go onto Betfair now and lay them against Spain at a little bit bigger than they should be and sit pretty. But I will ride it out as I think they are improving still.

One bet struck me today and that was German hitman Podolski to be top scorer in the European Championships at 9/2 with Boylesports.  Currently second on 3 behind Spain's Villa (4), he is odds on to have two games to increase his tally, and he could well do that tonight against a weakend Turkish defence.

One thing's for sure, if he scores tonight he will be favourite to win the prize, and if he doesnt but Germany progress, he is still in with a great chance and his price will definitely shorten.

Recommendation: Podolski to win Golden Boot 9/2 (Boyles)

European Championships Semi Finals

When the tournament started I posted this on June 7th: "Apparently there is a competition taking place in the Alps somewhere.... Keep the right side of Turkey, Greece and Russia"

The champions Greece fell tamely by the wayside but both the Russians and the Turks have made the semi finals at odds of 28/1 and 66/1.

My selections were Italy to win outright at 7/1 (knocked out in the Quarter Final) and Russia E/W at 28s. Russia need only beat Spain in the semi for me to make a huge profit - although a sane man would lay Russia now - I am getting 14/1 on them qualifying now, and will get the same odds again for the final.

Tonight's semi final looks like a comfortable win for Germany over a depleted Turkish side. I would fancy a 2-0 or 3-0 victory but will not be playing.

Flying Winner wins the TV Trophy at a canter

Most of the pundits 'broke even' last night though no-one had a stellar night. Bragging rights shared on the night by myself and Jonathon Kay who made a rare profit.

I made a small profit on the night of +€0.25 after 2 winners from 6 selections - Midway Skipper failing by half alength to get the 2nd spot behind the easiest TV Trophy winner for years, Flying Winner.

• Magna Dave WON 5/4 (took 9/4)
• Boherduff Monti LOST
• Killough Belles WON Evens (took 2/1)
• Bubbly Rambo LOST
• Midway Skipper LOST
• Midway Skipper LOST

 Peter Meldrum got only one winner making a loss of -€3.75

• Magna Dave WON 5/4
• Boherduff Monti LOST
• Cotsway Giants LOST
• Westmead Debbie LOST
• Bubbly Rambo LOST
• Swift Ninja LOST

Tony Bullen got 3/7 making a loss on the night of -€0.50

• Go Big Hitter LOST
• Boherduff Monti LOST
• Sibsey Showtime WON 2/1
• Head Iton Paddy Race Void
• Killough Belles WON Evens
• Glittering Aries LOST
• Pond Astronaut LOST
• Flying Winner WON 1/2

Jonathon Kay got 4/7 making a profit on the night of +€0.25

• Magna Dave WON 5/4
• Boherbradda Mac WON 1/2
• Cortsway Giants LOST
• Killough Belles WON Evens
• Vieris Surprise Race Void
• Glittering Aries LOST
• Rough Mourinho LOST
• Flying Winner WON 1/2

Jonathon Hobbs made a loss on the night of -€1.25 after 3 winners on the card

• Magna Dave WON 5/4
• Boherbradda Mac WON 1/2
• Cortsway Giants LOST
• Killough Belles NAP WON Evens
• Selecta Moon Race Void
• Glittering Aries LOST
• Droopys Obafemi LOST
• Bubbly Kate LOST

Up to date   TIPSTER LEAGUE after 18 Sky broadcasts in 2008.

1. manaboutdogblog +€18.41; 33/101 (33%)
2. Peter Meldrum +€7.13; 23/65 (35%)
3. Jonathon Hobbs -€2.30; 38/125 (30%)
4. Patrick Kelly -€1.65; 3/8 (37.5%)
5. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (40.9%)
6. Tony Bullen -€11.28; 22/69 (32%)
7. Jonathon Kay -€14.93; 37/101 (37%)
8. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

The TV Trophy Final at Doncaster

A nice card, and fair play to Donny tonight, for the final of the William Hill TV Trophy.  The winners of this read like a who's who of greyhound racing, and the hot favourite Flying Winner deserves to be mentioned with the greatest stayers of all time, such is her dominance of the scene at present.

However, I am not punting the Chris Lund trained bitch as she is no value at all at 1/2, and likely to go off shorter seeing as Harry Findlay has an involvement in this bitch.  He has in the past said he will happily back a long odds on shot if he feels its value, and she could fall into this category giving her superiority to her opposition tonight - so if you are backing the Pat Dalton bred jolly, take the price.

I, however, take a different view.  Here's the draw with last week's times (sectional in brackets) from the semis:

• 1. Flying Winner Won 55.87 (27.79)
• 2. Midway Skipper 2nd 56.01 (27.71)
• 3. Swift Jade Won 56.52 (27.78)
• 4. Bubbly Kate 2nd 56.73 (28.05)
• 5. Swift Blackfoot 2nd 56.68 (27.89)
• 6. Swift Ninja (W) Won Won 56.57 (27.78)

I cannot believe Midway Skipper is a best priced 10/1 this morning and am having some of that from the sponsors Hills, and I am also on at 9/2 without the favourite.  Look at it this way. She is 7 lengths quicker than the rest on th eclock, has the fastest sectional, and drawn in 2 can lead again.  If the favourite is anyway slow away there will be trouble as there are 5 railers and a lone wide seed.

My plays on tonight's card are:

• Magna Dave 9/4 Powers
• Boherduff Monti 7/2 Powers
• Killough Belles 2/1 Boyles
• Bubbly Rambo 4/1 Blue Square
• Midway Skipper 10/1 Hills
• Midway Skipper 9/2 Hills (without Flying Winner)

Sitting on top of the Sky Sports Tipping League table, I am fairly comfortable, but it's not an easy card tonight, and Peter Meldrum is biting at my tail. Here's how the Racing Post's Pricewise tips:

• Magna Dave
• Boherduff Monti 7/2 Powers
• Cotsway Giants 5/1 general
• Westmead Debbie 5/1 general
• Bubbly Rambo 4/1 Blue Square
• Swift Ninja 5/1 Coral

Tony Bullen has been well off the boil of late and is involved in a spat over the wooden spoon with Jonathon Kay and Richard Birch who is adrift at this stage. Here's how he sees it going tonight:

• Go Big Hitter
• Boherduff Monti
• Sibsey Showtime
• Head Iton Paddy
• Killough Belles
• Glittering Aries
• Pond Astronaut
• Flying Winner

Racing Post 'Open Check' Jonathon Kay's selections:

• Magna Dave
• Boherbradda Mac
• Cortsway Giants
• Killough Belles
• Vieris Surprise
• Glittering Aries
• Rough Mourinho
• Flying Winner

Wimbledon Womens Championship 2008

Ana Ivanovic(right) is a best priced 6/1 to win Wimbledon which looks about right, and her inconsistency on grass makes me swerve her for now.

Maria Sharapova is the kiddy on grass but is antepost favourite for this reason, and again will be avoided. In fact I will take her on. Darina Safina(above) ground her down in Paris and they are again seeded in the same quarter of the draw, and for that reason I fancy Safina to put her compatriate under pressure. The 13/2 offered by Skybet is too good to turn down, especially as Sharapova's resolve looked suspect at Roland Garros and who's to say she will even be involved when scheduled to meet Safina at the Quarter Final stage? 

Svetlana Kuznetzova is often overlooked when it comes to ante post Grand Slam betting but she usually perfoms well, and being drawn in the same quarter as Serena Williams is not a disastrous draw.  Although Serena, along with her sister Venus (last year's champion) is responsible for 6 of the last 8 Wimbledon crowns, she is constantly under an injury cloud and not at her best. Kuznetsova is a brilliant 13/2 with Betfred to make the Semi Finals and I will have a bit of that. 

Recommendation: Safina to make semi final: 13/2

Recommendation: Kuznetzova to make semi final: 13/2