m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Trading; Hedging; Laying off;

IRISH DERBY

After last night's Irish Derby Quarter Finals I looked at laying off a couple of my bets and take easy profits.

Advantage Johnny - who I backed at 5/1 at the third round stage to make the Final is now EVENS.  Johnny struggled home last night and is definitely 'not right'.  If I can lay this bet off I will but it's not going to happen as Betfair or Betdaq have no market on this - saying that I didnt back to lay and its just unfortunate if Johnny is injured.

Shelbourne Aston is a massive winner for me. The dog has bought me a lot of Gain 28 as I have backed him throughout his career.  I am not deserting him now.  I think the Derby is between him, College Causeway and Slip The Lark - the latter is a sure thing next weekend.  Aston was lucky to qualify last night really as he could have been knocked over, but he finished like a train and actually closed on winner College Causeway.  I took him at 14/1 at the 3rd round stage and I have contemplated laying him this morning at 7/1.  I think a lot of people have hedged him as he is drifting and is already out to 9/1 to lay on Betfair now.  There isnt much liquidity in this market. I've said FCK IT - I'm going to hold my voucher at 14/1.

US OPEN

Andy Murray is going great guns in the States and I spotted a rick in the market before it started when they had Murray at 8/1 to make the final.  He is now 21/5 on Betfair and can be laid at 5.6/1.  I am going to lay my bet on this one and have Murray to make the final 'running for me'.  It means I lose nothing if he doesnt make the final, but if he does make the final I win 2.4 times my initial stake.

I will leave my 'Murray to win' bet as it is. I took 14/1 and now he is as big as 18s on the exchanges.

PENDING BETS

Interesting developments in the Kevin Keegan market - rumours of unrest at Newcastle suggest all is not rosy and my 8/11 bet on him to leave before Jan 1 2009 looks alive again.

Svetlana Kuznetzova crashed out of the US Open - poor tip that one.

Middlesborough have got off to a flyer - they are odds on to finish above Sunderland and Newcastle now and I have them backed at 3/1.  I have them at 5/2 to finish top half and that looks strong and 11/10 to finish above the Hammers is also looking good.

Newcastle have started indifferently and my 5/4 for them finishing in the bottom half looks safe.  Portsmouth to finish above Man City could be interesting.  Both sides are in excellent form.

My bets on Drogba and Adebayor have not bore fruit yet but it's a long season.

Arsenal hit top gear yesterday and if they keep it up they may shorten beneath the 5/1 I took and I will lay it off - they can't win the league.

Boton to be relegated doesn't look a sure thing by any means, but my 100/30 will be live til Easter at least I reckon.

American Football

NFL 2008 Schedule

I am a bit of an American Football fan, and I have followed the fortunes of the Dallas Cowboys since the eighties when Channel 4 carried gridiron weekly.  I managed to get to a few matches at Wembley Stadium and I will be going to my first NFL match in the states when New York Jets face the Arizona Cardinals at the end of next month.

I think American Football is a very good betting proposition in general, as I think trends are very noticeable due to the modular nature of team's make-ups - running, passing, offence, defence - everything is broken down and scrutinised.  Although there is so much going on it is hard to be an expert on all teams and even divisions.  I like to punt on a select few teams and keep to those - ever backing or opposing.

Last year I made a few bob following the Giants and the Cowboys, and I hope to make bigger forays into this market this year. 

Above is the schedule for this year's fixtures in the AFC and NFC, starting next week when the Washington Redskins travel to 'World Champions' the New York Giants, and culminating with the Superbowl early next year.

Thanks to SKY TV we now get 3 or 4 games live via the red button every weekend and it makes having a punt a bit more fun.

Here is what NFL.com says about the three teams I will be focusing on for the majority of the season - the Cowboys, the Jets and the Giants.

DALLAS COWBOYS

"America's Team" is in the spotlight again. Except that spotlight looks a lot like a bullseye.

Expectations are out of sight for the Cowboys, who finished 13-3 in 2007, matched a franchise record for victories, finished first in the NFC East, earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and then lost their first playoff game to the Giants.

Dallas has not won a playoff game in a dozen years. Only five others -- Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston and Kansas City -- have gone as long without a playoff victory.

The Cowboys are two teams in one. They're the solid team that returns 20 starters and appears to have upgraded at the other two spots, and they're the team holding outspoken personalities Terrell Owens, Tank Johnsonand Adam 'Pacman' Jones that was remarkably quiet throughout training camp.

They also have a coach, Wade Phillips, who doesn't act like it but is under enormous pressure, both from the expectations and the knowledge that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is a head coach in waiting.

Quarterback Tony Romo, last year's top-rated passer in the NFC, still should be improving; this will be just his third season as a starter.

The new starters are running back Marion Barber, who led the Cowboys in rushing last season even though he started only one game, and linebacker Zach Thomas, who came from the Dolphins. Rookie Felix Jones' speed should be a terrific complement to Barber's power.

One problem area could be the failure to upgrade the second wideout position, where Patrick Crayton remains the starter, but the Cowboys expect tight end Jason Witten, who caught 96 passes last year, to continue to take some of the defensive attention away from Owens.

The 3-4 defense, which relies more on movement and schemes under Phillips than it did under Bill Parcells, who favored a power defense, should be improved.

Overall, this is still a young team that has faltered down the stretch and in the playoffs. Over the last decade, the Cowboys have a winning record in every month but December. It used to be that Dallas grew stronger after its 10-day post-Thanksgiving break, but lately the time off has not been kind to the Cowboys. Over the last five years, the Cowboys' winning percentage was .636 through Thanksgiving and .429 after Thanksgiving.

On the hot seat

Coach Wade Phillips. When you're the conference favorite, you have a head coach in waiting on your staff and you're getting ready to move into the most lavish new stadium in the world, you are pretty much on notice. It's time to win. Now.

Difference-maker

Defensive end Chris Cantyis in his contract year, and you have to believe the Cowboys expect more from him than the seven career sacks he has produced in three previous seasons. He has been a solid starter, but nothing special so far.

Hard road to hoe

More is expected of Dallas in the post-Thanksgiving stretch than the Cowboys have given the last few years, and this year the spotlight will be on the offense. Their four December games are all against strong defensive teams -- Steelers, Giants, Ravens, Eagles.

Cowboys will be better than you think if ...

Tony Romo continues to ascend and Terrell Owens continues to produce at an age (35 in December) at which wide receivers usually decline.

Cowboys will be worse than you think if ...

Running back Marion Barber is not as effective in the starter role as he was in the change-of-pace role. Dallas wants a strong running game so the pressure doesn't all fall on Romo.

NEW YORK GIANTS

They are the defending champions, the first NFC wild-card team to win the Super Bowl and the only team to win the title in each of the last three decades.

Under normal circumstances, the New York Giantsshould be one of the real glamour-team stories going into the 2008 season.

Instead, they are overshadowed in their own division, the NFC East, by defending division champion Dallas, a team generally considered the conference favorite, and they are overshadowed in their own city by the publicity surrounding the Jets' acquisition of Brett Favre.

All of which is just fine with the Giants, who had an unusually quiet training camp after the tumult of the last few years, now that Tiki Barber and Michael Strahan are only memories and coach Tom Coughlin is secure.

The Giants have a chip on their shoulders because they felt they were overlooked both before and after the Super Bowl, with most of the conversation centering around what turned out to be the Patriots' not-quite-perfect season.

But, how good, really, is New York?

Quarterback Eli Manning was superlative in the playoffs, but in three seasons as the full-time starter, he has ranked 23rd, 18th and 25th in the league in passing.

His best receiver, Plaxico Burress, was hobbled by an ankle injury in training camp, although he is expected to be ready when the season begins. The passing game may get a boost from second-year wideout Steve Smith, whose rookie year was pretty much a washout due to injuries -- at least, it was a washout until the playoffs, when Smith caught 14 passes including some key third-down conversion catches. One of them came one play before the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl.

There's inexperience at tight end, where Kevin Boss, a 2007 rookie, has taken over full-time for Jeremy Shockey, but plenty of experience on the offensive line, a veteran group that returns intact. The running game is a committee job led by Brandon Jacobs, a 264-pound pounder, and Derrick Ward.

Strahan and three starters who left in free agency are gone from the defense. The d-line rotation appeared deep enough to overcome Strahan's retirement, but a season-ending knee injury suffered in the preseason by Pro Bowl end Osi Umenyiora is a tough blow. Justin Tuck, who ranked second on the team in sacks, slides into Strahan's spot, while Mathias Kiwanukais being moved from linebacker back to his natural position of defensive end to fill in for Umenyiora.

All the other defensive replacements look solid, too, with first-round draft choice Kenny Phillipslikely to break into the lineup at free safety quite soon. Phillips has great anticipation on the field and handles himself like a veteran.

On the hot seat

Quarterback Eli Manning. Despite his playoff heroics, Manning's four seasons have been marked by relatively ordinary regular-season performances. He is yet to establish himself among the top rank of NFL quarterbacks.

Difference-maker

Rookie safety Kenny Phillips looks like more than just an adequate replacement for Gibril Wilson. Phillips handles himself like a pro and plays the position with good understanding and anticipation; he could become a significant playmaker.

Hard road to hoe

After their bye week in late September, the Giants face a six-week stretch that includes four games against teams that finished 10-6 or better last year plus division rival Philadelphia. It includes road games against the Browns, Steelers and Eagles and home games against the Seahawks and Cowboys.

Giants will be better than you think if ...

Justin Tuck plays as well as a starter, replacing Strahan, as he did as a situational pass rusher, and if Manning can make that jump to what so often is referred to as the "next level."

Giants will be worse than you think if ...

Their pass rush can't duplicate last season's 53 sacks and/or Burress' troublesome ankle bothers him enough that it leads to reduced effectiveness in the passing game.

NEW YORK JETS

Anyone who thought the Jets were building for the future got a wake up call this summer when they acquired future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre from the Packers after Favre and his old team could not find enough common ground to allow him back in Green Bay.

This was an absurd situation from which the Jets should benefit greatly because Favre's arrival ended speculation about the future of Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington, who was released.

Although nearly 40, Favre is coming off one of his greatest seasons, having thrown for 4,155 yards and 28 touchdowns while completing 67 percent of his throws. He still has a cannon of an arm, replacing the suspect popgun Pennington has been saddled with since shoulder surgery the past two years, and will open up their offense in ways wide receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery can only yet imagine.

Favre's presence should also help loosen defenses up for the running game, which averaged less than four yards a carry last season. The problem is the Jets allowed 53 sacks last year. Do that again and Favre's record of 253 consecutive starts could likely come to an end. Favre has brought excitement back to the Jets after last year's 4-12 debacle and he is running an offense with decent weapons that just became better because of his presence.

Running back Thomas Jones should find defenses less often massed at the line of scrimmage because of the fear Favre could drop back and riddle them. Tight ends Chris Baker and Bubba Franks (a frequent Favre target in Green Bay over the years) should find themselves better used by Favre, especially in the red zone, and Coles and Cotchery are going to learn to keep running because no matter how fast they go Favre can reach them.

On the hot seat

Calvin Pace must prove that his breakthrough season last year in Arizona was not simply a contract run into free agency. Most of his five years with the Cardinals were unimpressive but last season he made 106 tackles and 6 ½ sacks, leading the Jets to believe he's ready to become an impact player. They paid him like one and if their defense is going to improve significantly he better be one.

Difference maker

Alan Faneca. Normally a guard -- even a great one like Faneca -- is not central to an offense, but the Jets made Faneca the highest paid veteran lineman in the league this offseason in the hope he will bring toughness and stability to an offense that produced only 3.8 yards per rush in 2007. Faneca is sandwiched between emerging center Nick Mangold and left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who need to take steps forward this season. Faneca is supposed to show them both the way.

Hard row to hoe

The Jets have a three-week stretch in November where they must journey to New England and Tennessee, two of the AFC's toughest teams, and then come home to host the Broncos. That will tell you who they are as a team.

Jets will be better than you think if ...

They can run the ball with authority inside the 20. Last year top back Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored only one touchdown in 310 carries. If Jones becomes more productive inside the 20 so will the offense.

Jets will be worse than you think if ...

Nose tackle Kris Jenkins' body fails him again. The Jets brought the former Carolina Panther and Pro Bowl nose tackle in to do the dirty work central to improving their 3-4 defense. At 359 pounds he's a load. As Mangini said, "He makes it a 3-4 and a half." But Jenkins has been plagued by injuries and a growing weight problem the past few years and must stay healthy because there is no substitute for him.

manaboutdogblog kicks arse again

I might start picking these dogs with a pin on Sky nights as I seem to be winning every night Gary Newbon and co appear on my screen.  I got 3 winners from 6 dogs tonight including the Tote Gold Collar winner Barnfield Loreto (go Maldini!) and a superb, inspired, 7/1 morning price selection Vatican Jura.  The three losers either got trouble or walked out.

I made a profit on the night of +€6.17, but my comrades the Racing Post pundits were as usual, not very good.

Jonathon Hobbs 0/8; -€8.00
Jonathon Kay 1/8; -€6.33
Tony Bullen 1/8; -€6.33
Peter Meldrum 1/5; +1.50

My mate Jimbo once again held his own and shows green on the night. He got 2/8 making a small profit of +€0.50.

Belle Vue regular Keith Singleton's offering Bubbly Eagle was beaten by Jura but finished very very strongly and would have won in another 20 yards.

Blooming August

It's been a very poor month weather wise, with the wettest August on record. But despite the rain sodden summer, things are rosy in the manaboutdog garden, as I look like making substantial profits this month. Although currently I am only in profit by +€6.75 for the month, I have 27 outstanding bets, a number of which look like paying out.

In particular I should make €6.00 profit if Shelbourne Aston is in the first three on Saturday, and I'm looking good to make €5.00 if Advantage Johnny makes the final in a fortnight.  Middlesborough have started the premiership promisingly and their odds will be drastically shorter now than they were when I did the bet.  Most of the pending bets are up in the air though and will run for a long while, but if Aston and Johnny prevail, the pending bets will be treated by me as bonuses as my August book will be green practically regardless of the outcomes of the pending bets.

For full breakdown check out the Profit and Loss Records >>>

Barnfield Loreto	Pending	€0.00
Blonde Hero	Pending	€0.00
Gallileo Boy	Pending	€0.00
Blonde Jake PLACE	Pending	€0.00
Blonde Jake WIN	Pending	€0.00
Lochbo Meg	Pending	€0.00
Vatican Jura	Pending	€0.00
Advantage Johnny to make final	Pending	€0.00
Shelbourne Aston Outright 14/1 to trade	Pending	€0.00
Rocket Ricky	Lose	-€1.00
Jankovic to be runner-up	Pending	€0.00
Jankovic to win outright	Pending	€0.00
Kuznetzova to be Runner-Up	Pending	€0.00
Kuznetzova to win outright	Pending	€0.00
Andy Murray to be Runner-Up	Pending	€0.00
Andy Murray to win outright	Pending	€0.00
Boro to win at Liverpool	Lose	-€1.00
Bolton to beat Newcastle	Lose	-€1.00
West Brom to beat Everton	Lose	-€1.00
Hearts to win by more than a goal vs St. Mirren	Lose	-€1.00
Droopys Carvalho	Lose	-€1.00
Pond Gallileo	Lose	-€1.00
Pennys Corleone	Lose	-€1.00
Tyrur Hestor	Win	€3.00
Vigorous Pat	Lose	-€1.00
Sir Alf	Lose	-€1.00
Tipp v Waterford Draw 11/1	Lose	-€1.00
Hypnotic Vibes (6/1)	Win	€6.00
Hull to beat Fulham	Win	€1.62
Shelbourne Aston	Win	€4.00
Shelbourne Nikki	Lose	-€1.00
Bantiss Annie	Win	€2.50
Lickfinn Legend	Lose	-€1.00
Nadal	Win	€2.25
Safina	Lose	-€1.00
Hearts to win SPL (without Rangers and Celtic)	Pending	€0.00
Bolton to be relegated	Pending	€0.00
Boro to finish above West Ham	Pending	€0.00
Boro to finish top half	Pending	€0.00
Adebayor first player to score 10 PL goals	Pending	€0.00
Adebayor to be Arsenal's top PL scorer	Pending	€0.00
Spurs to finish top 6	Pending	€0.00
Spurs to win Carling Cup	Pending	€0.00
Newcastle to finish bottom half	Pending	€0.00
Drogba to be Chelsea's top scorer	Pending	€0.00
Portsmouth to finish above Man City	Pending	€0.00
Boro to finish above Newcastle and Sunderland	Pending	€0.00
Tyrur Hilary	Lose	-€1.00
Rocket Ricky	Lose	-€1.00
Cashen Legend	Lose	-€1.00
Fastflame	NR	€0.00
Droopys Teabag	Lose	-€1.00
The Other Sonic	Lose	-€1.00
Jesters Nap 7/4	Win	€1.75
Side Leg 5/1	Lose	-€1.00
Bubbly Rambo Place 10/1	Win	€2.50
Bubbly Rambo Win 10/1	Lose	-€1.00
Droopys Mate 9/4	Win	€2.25
Kilelton Rose 15/8	Win	€1.88

Tote Gold Collar Final Card at Belle Vue

A nice card at Belle Vue tonight but certainly NOT top class as Jonathon Kay wrote in the Racing Post.

Here are my selections:

• 740 No Selection

• 800 Vatican Jura 7/1 Blue Square

• 815 No Selection

• 835 Lochbo Meg

• 850 Blonde Jake EW 12/1 Bet365

• 910 Galileo Boy

• 925 Blonde Hero 11/2 Blue Square

• 945 Barnfield Loreto

This competition was won by the great Roxholme Girl in 2004 and 2006, and I know manaboutdogblog reader Keith Singleton has some pups out of the superstar stayer. Keith is a bit of a 'judge' so hopefully he might post up his selections for tonight to see how we fare.

The Racing Post pundits are running for cover - they are all losing money in 2008 apart from Meldrum, who is just in credit.

Jonathon Kay

• Goldcrest King 100/30

• Bubbly Eagle

• Winkys Don

• Lochbo Meg

• Fear Zafonic

• Romeo Llan

• Movealong Blue

• Commander Chief

Tony Bullen

• Alston Masala

• Bubbly Eagle

• Eye Onthe Flame

• Lochbo Meg

• Fear Zafonic

• Romeo Llan

• Fear Haribo

• Commander Chief

Peter Meldrum

• Crossfield Dave

• A Million Maid 5/1 BetDirect

• Ace High Zoom 7/1 general

• Farley Magic 11/2 Coral

• Southwind Harry 5/1 BlueSquare

 

Up to date TIPSTER LEAGUE TABLE

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

 

Up to date TIPSTER LEAGUE TABLE

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

(after 24 Sky broadcasts in 2008) up to and including the Select Stakes card (19/8/08)

1. manaboutdogblog +€14.50; 42/134 (31%)

2. Jimbo +4.75; 4/8 (50%)
3. Peter Meldrum +€4.46; 33/98 (34%)
4. Phil Donaldson -€2.04 9/22 (41%)

5. Dave Johnstone -€2.61; 3/8 (37%)

6. Patrick Kelly -€2.84; 7/16 (44%)

7. Jonathon Hobbs -€12.99; 52/173 (30%)
8. Tony Bullen -€22.09; 31/100 (31%)
9. Richard Birch -€23.94; 17/55 (30.9%)

10. Jonathon Kay -€31.57; 50/143 (35%)

Blog Challenge after Round 3

I have made a complete comeback in the Tipping Challenge with John O'Sullivan.  if I win this leg of the series it will be 6-2 to me and I will probably have to think about offering JohnO handicap terms or some kind of incentive........LOL

On Saturday I notched 4 from 8 for a profit of +€2.32.  JohnO got 2 from 8 for a loss of -€4.86.  My €7.18 victory on the night gives me an overall challenge lead of €6.39.  With just 7 races to go JohnO needs a big priced winner or a complete collapse by me - quite possible on both scores.  I'm nearly making a profit on the stake - that would be a big achievement for me as this is always a hard competition to make money in.

Kilhoran Kennels 2/8; -€4.86

Ballymac Ruso WON 4/7
College Causeway WON 4/7
Target Kewell LOST
Compass Smash LOST
Ballymac Under LOST
Slip The Lark LOST
Bar The Devil LOST
Tyrur Bertie  LOST

manaboutdogblog 4/8; +2.32

Rocket Ricky LOST
College Causeway WON 4/7
Forest Master WON 3/1
Advantage Johnny WON 6/4
Ballymac Under LOST
Slip The Lark LOST
Shelbourne Aston WON 5/4
The Other Sonic LOST

Complete Totals after 3 Rounds

1. manaboutdogblog 18/49 (37%); -€2.88

2. Kilhoran Kennels  16/48(33%); -€9.27

Irish Derby Tipping Competition: Quarter Finals Official Entry Thread

1st Quarter Final
T1: Cabra Boss
T2: Forest Master
T3: Headleys Bridge
T4: Compass Smash (m)
T5: Ballymac Ruso (m)
T6: Midwest Blue (w)

2nd Quarter Final
T1: Top Louis
T2: Cashen Zig
T3: Tyrur Laurel (m)
T4: Machu Picchu (m)
T5: Slip The Lark (w)
T6: Swinford Mylo (w)

3rd Quarter Final
T1: Graigues Shadow (m)
T2: Shelbourne Aston (m)
T3: Royal Treason (m)
T4: College Causeway (m)
T5: Wise Though (w)
T6: Rocket Ricky (w)

4th Quarter Final
T1: Boherash Gaoithe
T2: Express Ego
T3: Killahan Panter (m)
T4: Tyrur Luke (m)
T5: The Other Sonic (w)
T6: Advantage Johnny (w)

Update on selections

A fairly baron weekend but plenty of pots still on the fire.

I tipped up Rocket Ricky at 5s to win his heat at Shelbourne but he shipped a bump, and the big dog that he is took a few strides to get going again.  He ran very well though and I actually got 6s at Thurles track and got a fair run for my money.

Shelbourne Aston (pictured below on Saturday night courtesy of Gavin Tucker) is a best priced 10/1 today after his good win on Saturday.  I advised a bet at 14s and the dog is available to lay at 12s on Betfair for instant profit but I wll ride it out.  He is 6/1 with a number of bookies still, but a Quarter Final progression will ensure he is a best priced 5 or 6/1 on the exchanges and I will then lay off some of my considerable outlay.

A solid bet that really looks like paying dividends was my shout on Advantage Johnny to qualify for the Irish Derby Final at 5/1 with Powers. Well Johnny was back at his best when catching Compass Smash and he is 2/1 to qualify for the Final now after getting yet another trap 6 draw.  It is nigh on impossible to see this boy getting knocked out while donning his beloved stripes.

Andy Murray (14s to win and 8s to be runner up) cruised to victory in New York yesterday and my other US Open Tennis selections Jelena Jankovic (11s EW) and Svetlana Kuznetzova (14s EW) are also safely through.  I also flagged that Rafa Nadal could be vulnerable after his tough summer and he was taken to five sets yesterday before coming through his easy-ish first round match. 

My football bets were fairly crap. Middlesborough (9/1) did deserve at least a point at Anfield but threw away their lead by dropping two sloppy goals in the last few minutes. West Brom and Bolton both lost, while Hearts won but only by the minimum.

Bruce Betting Irish Derby Tipping Competition: Round 3 Results

Paul Watkins was the weekly winner and there were a few very strong performances this week.  It's REALLY close at the top, and the Bizmarck Baron and Napking Leagues are all up for grabs.  Those highlighted in blue I did not recieve any entries for unfortunately - if you emailed me I am afraid I haven't recieved any and there is nothing I can do, although I suspect most in blue had given up the ghost. We have a new overall leader in Steven Jackson and we have 12 tipsters over the 400 points mark.

PAUL WATKINS	125
RICHARD COLEMAN	115
STEVEN JACKSON	110
FIONA HICKEY	110
TOMAS REILLY	105
DOUGLAS BRUCE	95
PAUL JENNINGS	90
DAVID RYAN	85
HELEN MOYLES	80
RICHARD NEWELL	80
JOHNNY KIELY	80
FRANNY PROUT	75
FLORENCE HASLETT	75
ROBERT CATTERSON	70
ROB MURDIE	70
GARY MILES	70
MARTIN DRAKE	70
GORDON CLANCY	65
STEVE PORTER	65
LEWIS N CONNOR	60
JOHNNY MOYLES	60
GRAHAM ASHFORD	60
ROBERT MOYLES	60
KIERAN REEVES	55
DERMOT CARROLL	55
DARYL MCLAUGHLIN	50
SEAN HICKEY	50
JOHN O SULLIVAN	45
KAREN DRAKE	40
MAC	35
TOM CAFFREY	30
DAVE YANEZ	30
SHANE W	30
SEAN CORBETT	25
MATT STYLES
KEVIN MURPHY
PJ COFFEY
DARREN LEESON
DENISE COFFEY
MR BECKETT
J MCALLISTAIR
PETER O SHAUGHNESSY
LIVI NOBLE
RICK ROSE
DANIEL CARROLL

LEADERBOARD AFTER ROUND 3 OF THE IRISH GREYHOUND DERBY 2008

STEVEN JACKSON	490
LEWIS N CONNOR	480
PAUL WATKINS	480
DOUGLAS BRUCE	455
PAUL JENNINGS	445
RICHARD COLEMAN	445
JOHNNY MOYLES	440
FIONA HICKEY	435
TOMAS REILLY	435
KIERAN REEVES	425
ROBERT CATTERSON	425
FRANNY PROUT	420
GRAHAM ASHFORD	415
JOHN O SULLIVAN	400
GORDON CLANCY	385
ROB MURDIE	385
DERMOT CARROLL	370
DARYL MCLAUGHLIN	360
DAVID RYAN	360
TOM CAFFREY	345
STEVE PORTER	340
FLORENCE HASLETT	335
HELEN MOYLES	330
SEAN CORBETT	330
MAC	320
RICHARD NEWELL	320
SEAN HICKEY	295
JOHNNY KIELY	290
MATT STYLES	290
GARY MILES	285
KEVIN MURPHY	285
DAVE YANEZ	280
MARTIN DRAKE	280
PJ COFFEY	280
SHANE W	280
ROBERT MOYLES	250
DARREN LEESON	245
DENISE COFFEY	195
MR BECKETT	185
J MCALLISTAIR	150
PETER O SHAUGHNESSY	130
KAREN DRAKE	125
LIVI NOBLE	115
RICK ROSE	110
DANIEL CARROLL	80

BISMARCK BARONS

LEWIS N CONNOR	100
JOHNNY MOYLES	80
KIERAN REEVES	80
DOUGLAS BRUCE	80
PAUL WATKINS	80
FIONA HICKEY	80
GRAHAM ASHFORD	60
JOHN O SULLIVAN	60
ROB MURDIE	60
SEAN CORBETT	60
STEVE PORTER	60
DAVID RYAN	60
FLORENCE HASLETT	60
HELEN MOYLES	60
SEAN HICKEY	60
RICHARD NEWELL	60
MR BECKETT	60
STEVEN JACKSON	60
TOMAS REILLY	60
RICHARD COLEMAN	60
FRANNY PROUT	40
TOM CAFFREY	40
DARYL MCLAUGHLIN	40
KEVIN MURPHY	40
MAC	40
DAVE YANEZ	40
SHANE W	40
RICK ROSE	40
KAREN DRAKE	40
DANIEL CARROLL	40
PAUL JENNINGS	40
ROBERT CATTERSON	20
GORDON CLANCY	20
DERMOT CARROLL	20
MATT STYLES	20
PJ COFFEY	20
DARREN LEESON	20
MARTIN DRAKE	20
JOHNNY KIELY	20
DENISE COFFEY	20
ROBERT MOYLES	20
J MCALLISTAIR	20
GARY MILES	0
PETER O SHAUGHNESSY	0
LIVI NOBLE	0

NAPKINGS
JOHNNY MOYLES	120
PAUL WATKINS	100
PAUL JENNINGS	100
FRANNY PROUT	100
LEWIS N CONNOR	80
STEVEN JACKSON	80
DOUGLAS BRUCE	80
GRAHAM ASHFORD	80
JOHN O SULLIVAN	80
ROBERT CATTERSON	80
TOMAS REILLY	80
GORDON CLANCY	80
DERMOT CARROLL	80
SEAN HICKEY	80
GARY MILES	80
TOM CAFFREY	60
SEAN CORBETT	60
MATT STYLES	60
PJ COFFEY	60
KIERAN REEVES	60
RICHARD COLEMAN	60
FIONA HICKEY	60
STEVE PORTER	60
FLORENCE HASLETT	60
HELEN MOYLES	60
RICHARD NEWELL	60
ROBERT MOYLES	60
KEVIN MURPHY	40
MAC	40
ROB MURDIE	40
DARYL MCLAUGHLIN	40
DAVID RYAN	40
MARTIN DRAKE	40
DAVE YANEZ	20
DARREN LEESON	20
MR BECKETT	20
J MCALLISTAIR	20
JOHNNY KIELY	20
SHANE W	0
DENISE COFFEY	0
PETER O SHAUGHNESSY	0
LIVI NOBLE	0
RICK ROSE	0
KAREN DRAKE	0
DANIEL CARROLL	0

Irish Derby 3rd Round

Rocket Ricky is MASSIVE at 5/1 with Boylesports for the opening heat,

Recommendation: Rocket Ricky 5/1 Boylesports

Shelbourne Aston has a tricky heat tonight but he should qualify barring disaster.  He is STILL available at 14/1 with VCBet and Coral and this is simply an opportunity to buy a very attractive trading proposition.  If Aston qualifies tonight he is likely to be 8s or 10s in the morning, and on that basis I am now going to have a heavy bet on Aston at 14s - remember he wasn't much bigger at the start of the competition.

Recommendation: Shelbourne Aston Outright 14/1 VCBet or Coral

Advantage Johnny is 5/1 to qualify for the final and as a dog that is likely to keep a wide path around and avoid trouble he has to be fancied to keep qualifying.

Recommendation: Advantage Johnny to make Final 5/1 Paddy Power