....and MANABOUTDOGBLOG wins the Sky Sports Tipping League 2008! Oi Oi!
I gave a class tipping performance last night, and Meenala Amy won the English Oaks brilliantly.
Of my selections last night I had 3 winners, a short head second and a third place that never got going. Two 6/4 winners and a 10/1 trap to line in the feature means I have overtaken Peter Meldrum to finish top of the Sky Sports Tipping League that has been running for 34 meetings since the Prestige at Hall Green back at the start of the year.
I also did well avoiding the odds on puppy in the first, steering clear of the hurdles race and the ultra competitive 2nd race last night which none of my competitors could fathom out.
manaboutdogblog 4/6; +€13.50
8.40 Romeo Maldini WON 4/6 took 6/4)
8.55 Lochbo Meg LOST
9.10 Vatican Iona LOST
9.25 Deanridge Fury WON 6/4
9.45 Meenala Amy E/W WON 10/1
My mate Jimbo made a loss on the night but finishes the year in profit - unlike most of the Racing Post professional pundits 2/8; -€1.25
7.40 - DROOPY'S GORAN LOST
8.00 - ALFIE SPARRA LOST
8.15 - BARNFIELD CHUBBY WON 3/1 (took 5/2)
8.35 - PIGALLE LADY LOST
8.50 - LOCHBO MEG LOST
9.10 - BARNFIELD BROOKE WON 6/4 (took 9/4)
9.25 - AFFLECK ELITE LOST
9.45 - DANGEROUS LADY LOST
Phil Donaldson Racing Post performed well enough - I'd like to see him tipping more often on the Sky nights next year - he gave Meenala Amy at 66/1 EW and Droopys Quinta at 12/1 EW and both paid out. Last night he got 3/8 for a profit of +€0.17
7.40 - DEANRIDGE AMMO LOST
8.00 - MILLWARDS COMET LOST
8.15 - BARNFIELD CHUBBY WON 3/1
8.35 - ROMEO MALDINI NB WON 4/6
8.50 - BLONDE FERN LOST
9.10 - BARNFIELD BROOKE WON 6/4
9.25 - SHANEBOY LUKE LOST
9.45 - DROOPYS QUINTA LOST
Jonathon Kay Racing Post got 3/8 and a small loss of -€0.58 which means he avoids the wooden spoon over Christmas as Tony Bullen gets to be the custodian this year.
7.40 - DEANRIDGE AMMO LOST
8.00 - MOVEALONG BLUE LOST
8.15 - ANALYSE LOST
8.35 - ROMEO MALDINI WON 4/6
8.50 - DROOPYS LOTTO LOST
9.10 - BARNFIELD BROOKE WON 6/4 (took 9/4)
9.25 - DEANRIDGE FURY WON 6/4
9.45 - DROOPYS QUINTA LOST
Peter Meldrum chose the wrong night to draw a blank. 6 tips, 6 losers. -€6.00
7.40 - DROOPY'S KEZ LOST
8.00 - MOVEALONG BLUE LOST
8.35 - DROOPYS NELSON LOST
8.50 - BLONDE FERN LOST
9.25 - SHANEBOY LUKE LOST
9.45 -ADAMANT MOJO LOST
Jonathon Hobbs of Sky had a mare as usual - come on Hobbsy - you can do better than this. 1 win from 8 on a card where a few short favourites obliged. Hobbsy made a loss of -€5.50 on the night.
7.40 - DEANRIDGE AMMO LOST
8.00 - SECRETARIAT LOST
8.15 - WINKYS DON LOST
8.35 - BUTTERBRIDGE ALI LOST
8.50 - BLONDE FERN LOST
9.10 - BARNFIELD BROOKE WON 6/4
9.25 - SHANEBOY LUKE LOST
9.45 - RAVELLO DRIVE LOST
So what you have all been waiting for....the final Sky Sports Tipping League Table for 2008
POS: TIPSTER: PROFIT/LOSS (LEVEL €1 STAKE): WINS/SELECTIONS: WIN %
1. manaboutdogblog +€20.25; 55/190 (29%)
2. My Mate Jimbo +€9.18; 30/79; (38%)
3. Peter Meldrum (Racing Post) +€5.65; 50/155 (32%)
4. Dave Johnstone (Racing Post)-€2.61; 3/8 (37%)
5. Patrick Kelly (Racing Post)-€2.84; 7/16 (44%)
6. Phil Donaldson (Racing Post) -€4.87; 14/37 (38%)
7. Jonathon Hobbs (Sky) -€20.19; 80/245 (33%)
8. Richard Birch (Racing Post) -€26.94; 19/62 (31%)
9. Jonathon Kay (Racing Post) -€27.87; 75/203 (37%)
10. Tony Bullen (Racing Post)-€31.62; 72/195 (35%)
ANALYSIS OF THE YEAR'S RESULTS
What immediately jumps out at me from the above table is that I have the lowest strike rate of all the tipsters. I put this down to the fact that about half way through the year I decided to be more selective in my tips and rarely back odds-on shots and definitely no hurdle races or odds-on puppies. I also started taking selected morning prices after noticing that the majority of runners contracted in price before the off. Other tipsters who are tipping in every race, may get every other odds-on shot to win, which raises their percentage closer the 50% mark, but does massive damage to the bank balance when all is said and done.
You simply cannot bet on every race - which is why some of the guys - notably Hobbsy and to a lesser extent Jonathon Kay who doesnt do the full card anymore - are so far down the table.
Lets face it, these guys are NOT MUGS. They know the sport inside out. The fact that only Peter Meldrum, as a paid pundit, pulled in a profit over the course of a year - and that only a meagre fiver despite Meldrum having the lucxury of picking and choosing his races and taking the morning prices which are ALWAYS bigger than at night, shows that the Sky races, as a betting medium, are very very skinny on value. If Peter Meldrum can only get a margin of 3.65% over the year, that shows you that perhaps Sky meetings are NOT for punting.
Saying that, I did well in the end after hovering around the break even point all year and a big final night performance, and I believe a profit can be made if you follow a few simple rules.
1. DO NOT BET ON EVERY RACE
2. DO NOT BET ODDS ON PUPPIES
3. DO NOT BET ON HURDLES - THESE SEEM TO BE A LOTTERY ON SKY WITH BUNCHED FINISHES A REGULAR OCCURRENCE
4. WHEN IT DOUBT LEAVE IT OUT - SOME OF THESE OPENS ARE 'GRADED' TIGHTER THAN THE BAGS
5. GET UP EARLY. TAKE YOUR PRICES IN THE MORNING.
I will do a full analysis of the 34 Sky meetings soon and perhaps you can see a few trends developing. For example, anecdotal evidence suggest certain tracks are more prone to weather affecting the going on inside or outside - is this true or a load of bull? Do odds-on shots get beaten more regularly on Sky than in normal Opens? I think they do - I will check it out.
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