m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Birmingham Cup Final Card

The 2nd Sky card of the year is at Perry Barr tomorrow night where the main event is the Birmingham Cup Final.

There were some good tipping performances last week, notably Jonathon Hobbs and Ken from skydogsblog.

If you want to challenge me and the other pundits, simply enter any selections via the comment function.

19:40 - The Play Casino @ Williamhill.com Puppy Stakes 480m

1 Kinda Ready M A Wallis (Harlow)
2 Bryn G Corbett
3 Markland Marvel (m) J D Davy (Sheffield)
4 Hondo Spartan (m) P J Rosney (Nottingham)
5 Supreme Mo (w) S M Buckland (Hall Green)
6 Droopys Conquest (w) E T Parker (Sheffield)

20:00 - The Sportsbet @ Williamhill.com Sprint 275m

1 Emporio Rapide H J Dimmock (Peterborough)
2 Abbeyside Bart E T Parker (Sheffield)
3 Farloe Ferdinand P A Curtin (Oxford)
4 Horseshoe Ping (m) J W Reynolds (Romford)
5 Miss Lee (m) D R Pruhs (Peterborough)
6 Head Iton Tyler (w) C Allsopp (Monmore)

20:15 - The Play Blackjack @ Williamhill.com Super Stayers 710m

1 Tipp The Breeze M A Wallis (Harlow)
2 Lorrys Options D Childs (Coventry)
3 Capel Wilson (m) A B Gifkins (Unattached)
4 Greedy Bridie (m) L G Tuffin (Nottingham)
5 Swift Ninja (w) M Harris (Monmore)
6 Danis Countess (w) R P Rees (Wimbledon)

20:35 - The Play Poker @ Williamhill.com Ladies Stakes 480m

1 Lochbo Meg K Sim (Unattached)
2 Steady Scholes M Grady (Poole)
3 Whitefort Bess P J Rosney (Nottingham)
4 Killough Belles B Draper (Unattached)
5 Abbeyvale Jess (w) S M Buckland (Hall Green)
6 Ravello Drive (w) R P Rees (Wimbledon)

20:50 - The Betlive @ Williamhill.com Standard 480m

1 Eye Onthe Brave M A Wallis (Harlow)
2 Coolbeggan Flash L Cook
3 Droopys Billy (m) B Draper (Unattached)
4 Windy Millar (m) P J Rosney (Nottingham)
5 Vancouver Dylan (m) C Allsopp (Monmore)
6 Driving Up Pal (w) P A Sallis (Hall Green)

21:10 - The Play Bingo @ Williamhill.com Stayers Stakes 660m

1 Dazzle Special T V Hunwicks (Peterborough)
2 Giddyup Boy D R Pruhs (Peterborough)
3 Buffalo Vieri M Harris (Monmore)
4 Boherbee Ben (m) D J F Hampson (Belle Vue)
5 Rough Domino (w) L G Tuffin (Nottingham)
6 Butterbridge Ali (w) M A Wallis (Harlow)

21:25 - The Play Vegas Games @ Williamhill.com Marathon 915m

1 Flying Winner C T Lund (Hull)
2 Vatican Iona P J Rosney (Nottingham)
3 Ragtime Gypsy B Draper (Unattached)
4 Midway Skipper H Chalkley (Henlow)
5 Genesis Alix M A Wallis (Harlow)
6 Seamies Gambler (m) P W Young (Romford)

21.45 William Hill Birmingham Cup Final 480m

1 Goldcrest King (M Wallis)
2 Fear Zafonic (C Lister)
3 Mountjoy Gold (M Wallis)
4 Directors Ruler (M Wallis)
5 Affleck Elite (C Lister)
6 Shaneboy Luke (m) (E McNair)

Radar tuned in pretty well at present

  I know I am not tipping in great volumes at present - it's hard to make judgements with the awful weather and I'd rather take a watching brief, keep the powder dry, you know what I mean....

Saturday and Sunday were big ones for me.

Accordello, who I selected as my only bet for the John J Casey 575 Stake at Shelbourne Park, was simply sensational when winning in 31.18, easily the fastest of the 3 semis.  I tipped him as a dog to follow "I have an inkling for a young dog that looks a future star" on January 9th, and advised an Each Way bet at 28/1 with Boylesports (first four places).  He has drawn a perfect trap 5 in next weekend's final (inside the slow starting The Other Achill) and I have to stand a brilliant chance of drawing cash here. This son of Westmead Hawk has a huge future.

The NFC and AFC Championship Finals were played last night.  As predicted it didn't entirely go the way of the jollys. The Arizona Cardinals were well worthy of their 32-25 NFC win over favourites the Philadelphia Eagles and are now in thier first Superbowl for 61 seasons.  7/4 was given by me as value in a game I saw as a coinflip.

I predicted a tight low scoring game in the AFC final, and when the Baltimore Ravens restricted Pittsburgh to just 6 pts in the first quarter despite the Eagles having the ball throughout I thought I was on the money. It was tit-for-tat throughout from thereon as the #1 & #2 Ranked defences in the league cancelled each other out. The Steelers went on to win by 9pts in a score of 23-14 and I missed out by 4pts after advising a bet at 10/11 on the Ravens (+6). Close but no cigar,

NFC & AFC Conference Finals

 

In Sunday's first game, Arizona Cardinals were well worthy of their 33-13 victory in Carolina and although their NFC Conference Final against hot favourites Philadelphia will see them go off as underdogs, I think the home advantage accorded them at the University of Phoenix Stadium could be worth a score or two.

Eli Manning threw many an errant pass for the Giants at the weekend and the scoreline, in the end flattered the Eagles.  I think the Cardinals are a coin-flip and the 7-4 is a value bet to qualify for Superbowl XLIII

A bonus is we get to see the fabulous Arizona Cardinals Cheerleaders (pictured above and below).

Recommendation: Arizona to beat Philadelphia : 7/4 Paddy Power

I did think the Pittsburgh Steelers and Willie Parker in particular were very impressive last weekend. They are the favourites for the Superbowl, but the way this season has gone, I fancy the Baltimore Ravens to pull off a shock in Sunday's second game. I was very impressed with the Ravens defence in Tennessee, and I expect a low scoring game.

Steelers will have home advantage, but I just fancy the Ravens to get their heels in and grind out an unlikely result. 9/4 is big but the Ravens get a 6pts start on the spreads and that's the way I can see this game going - neck and neck all the way. I will play on the handicap betting.

Recommendation: Ravens (+6pts) to beat Pittsburgh

 

manaboutdogblog American Football season to date: 19 bets; 11 wins; Profit +€5.93 to a level €1 stake

January so far

• Luka Modric to score first v Burnley Win and Place 1,2,3,4 LOSE -2.00

• Andy Murray to win a Grand Slam in 2009 PENDING 6/5

• Accordello to win John J Casey 575 Win and Place 1,2,3,4 PENDING 28/1 

• NY Giants to win by more than 4 pts v Eagles LOSE -1.00

• Pittsburgh to win by more than 6.5 pts v Chargers WIN +0.91

• Abbeyvale Jess LOSE -1.00

• Miss Lee WIN +1.75

• Mountjoy Ruby WIN +4.00

• Romeo Llan Each Way LOSE -2.00

• Steady Scholes LOSE -1.00

TOTAL: 3 Winners 6 Losers 3 Bets Pending Loss: -€0.34

I also managed to lay off my Spurs bet to win the League Cup which added+3.30 to my August 2008 balance.

skydogsblog Destroys the Pundits in first Sky Broadcast of 2009

The first Sky meeting of 2009 was run off last night at Hall Green and a tremendous feat of tipping was displayed by Ken from SkyDogsBlog who is 'guesting' on the blog this year on the Sky races.  He gave out 5 dogs and 3 of them won (6 selections as one was EW) and he turned a morning line profit of €14.75 for a level stake bet.  His SP profit on the night was a smashing €11.12 - dwarfing the rest of us. 

I did ok, making money with my tips - although the SP profit is slightly in the red. A profit is a profit at the end of the day.

I have decided to compile the league table slightly different this year (despite finishing on top last year).  The likes of Peter Meldrum and myself select with best prices taken in most cases.  Bullen, and Hobbsy in particular, are at a disadvantage as they are tipping with no prices taken - and with Sky dogs 90% of the prices do contract for whatever reason.  So it is only fair that the league table reflects our ability  to pick winners and not just select value.  The Morning Line figure will be what I judge myself on - as will Peter Meldrum - but for the sake of a performance table, this way is fairer.

Over the coming weeks as other guys come in, the table will get interesting. The likes of Phil Donaldson and Patrick Kelly will want to improve on last year's performance. Anybody submitting tips via the comment function on this blog will be included in the league table.

POS	TIPSTER	WINS	TIPS	%	MORNING LINE	SP PROFIT
1	Ken (skydogsblog)	4	6	66.66	€14.75	€11.12
2	Jonathon Kay	3	8	37.50	€2.95	€2.95
3	Jonathon Hobbs	4	8	50.00	€2.45	€2.45
4	manaboutdogblog	2	6	33.33	€1.75	-€0.40
5	Peter Meldrum	2	7	28.57	-€1.75	-€2.80
6	Jimbo	2	8	25.00	-€3.53	-€3.43
7	Mick Livesey	1	6	16.66	-€3.25	-€3.63
8	Tony Bullen	2	8	25.00	-€3.70	-€3.70

The winner of the main event last night was the brilliant Hawks Dilemma who won the Prestige at 7/1.  Romeo Maldini was the first odds on favourite beaten since this very same meeting last year.

I will keep tabs on Jonathon Hobbs closely this year. He had an annus horribilis last year losing €20.19 to level stakes after tipping 80 winners from 245 selections.  A 1 in 3 strike rate could not guarantee Hobbsy a profit last year - that shows you just how tough it is to make the dogs pay, and in particular these Sky meetings.  You have to respect anyone who can make it pay.

Hobbsy started 2009 brightly, getting 4 of his 8 home and turning a profit on the night of €2.45.  Hobbsy got his Nap Miss Lee home at 11/10 and his Next Best Capel Wilson won very well too at the same price. 

HOBBSY's CHOICE 2009: Naps 1/1 (100%); NBs 1/1 (100%); +€2.20

The next Sky card of the year is a week tomorrow when the Birmingham Cup Final is run at Perry Barr.

Tonight's Sky Selections: Prestige Final Card

The first Sky card of the year and I am licking my lips. I could be licking my nuts afterwards though as this is a very tough card to call.  We have a few extra challengers this year - bring it on!!

I am playing in 5 of the 8 races I really fancy Steady Scholes to win the big one and think she will drift bigger than the 3/1 she is this morning.

Abbeyvale Jess 3/1 Ladbrokes

Miss Lee 7/4 Paddy Power

Mountjoy Ruby 4/1 Blue Square

Romeo Llan EACH WAY 10/1 Ladbrokes

Steady Scholes SP

RACING POST PUNDITS

Peter Meldrum
Birchfield Hero	11/2	Blue Sq
Miss Lee	7/4	Gen
Capel Wilson	6/4	Gen
Drink Up Zorro	9/4	Coral
Boherbee Ben	SP
Seamies Gambler	4/1	Tote
Romeo Maldini	11/10	Gen
Tony Bullen
Birchfield Hero
Boherduff Monti
Tommy Bahama
Capel Wilson
Drink Up Zorro
Giddyup Boy
Swift Jade
Steady Scholes
Jonathon Kay
Abbeyvale Jess
Farloe Ferdinand
Ranch Pacific
Lavenders Grant	2/1	Gen
Drink Up Zorro
Butterbridge Ali
Swift Jade
Romeo Maldini

William Hill Prestige Card at Hall Green

Get your thinking caps on - a really competitive card tomorrow night live on Sky.

19:40 (Open Race 480M)

Perrys Corleone 4-5-3-T-2
Birchfield Hero T-5-3-3-1
Blonde Lucy 3-4-3-2-1
Kinda Ready T-2-1-5-1
Romeo Primo 3-3-5-6-6
Abbeyvale Jess 1-2-2-2-T

20:00 (Open Race 258M)

Farloe Ferdinand 1-5-2-4-3
Oh His Nerves 5-1-2-4-T
Emporio Rapide T-2-2-3-3
Boherduff Monti 4-1-2-1-1
Miss Lee T-5-1-1-1
Rapidvite Liam T-T-T-1-3

20:15 (Open Race 480M HURDLES)

Ranch Pacific T-4-3-1-3
Tommy Bahama T-1-3-1-1
Clodeen Vieri T-T-1-1-1
Bubbly Magic 5-1-4-2-1
Sawpit Samurai 2-5-3-3-2
Eye Onthe Flame T-3-2-T-T

20:35 (Open Race 670M)

Spankee Moved 3-2-4-5-T
Tipp The Breeze T-T-T-6-4
Lavenders Grant 4-1-1-2-1
Fabulous Voyage 3-2-2-1-T
Droopys Comfort 4-1-3-5-5
Capel Wilson 1-2-6-1-T

20:50 (Open Race 480M)

Drink Up Zorro T-1-1-2-T
Carlsberg Flash T-4-1-3-3
Illusionist 1-T-3-1-T
Agent Ben 2-1-2-2-T
Lively Lotte 5-2-3-1-3
Mountjoy Ruby T-1-4-5-T

21:10 (Open Race 645M)

Giddyup Boy 1-T-5-1-T
Boherbee Ben 4-3-2-1-1
Mere Moet 5-3-T-2-5
Romeo Llan 5-2-T-3-1
Sniper Mo Chara 5-2-1-T-6
Butterbridge Ali 4-2-5-3-3

21:25 (Open Race 892M)

Genesis Alix 5-5-2-1-2
Tinker T-1-5-T-1
Shelbourne Holly 2-T-5-3-5
Swift Jade 1-4-1-4-1
Soldiers Tale 5-6-3-1-4
Seamies Gambler T-T-4-1-4

21.45  williamhill.com Prestige Final
£5,000 + Trophy and Presentation Jacket. [Live on SKY SPORTS]

[1] SWIFT N HASTY (M Harris Monmore Green)

[2] LORRYS OPTIONS (D Childs Unatt)

[3] STEADY SCHOLES (M Grady Poole)

[4] OLYGIRL (E McNair Unatt)

[5] HAWKS DILEMMA (S Cahill Hove)

[6] ROMEO MALDINI (wide) (D Fimager Coventry)

NFL: Divisional Play Offs - Giants and Steelers to win comfortably

The Superbowl Champions take on their fierce rivals tonight at the Meadowlands  in the NFC Divisional Play Off and they are a warm order - and rightly so.  A best priced 1/2 is not that attractive, but a low points spread of 3.5points with Paddy Power at 5/6 is very tempting and I will play. 

I expect the Giants to cover the spread with interest.

RECOMMENDATION: NEW YORK GIANTS TO BEAT THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES BY 4pts OR MORE 5/6 PADDY POWER

 

San Diego look about the poorest team to make post season this year and I cannot see them having any chance at all against the top defence in the league, Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 4/11 which is possibly even a bit big, such is the gulf between these two sides. 

Once again I am looking to the spreads and the 6 pts at 10/11 with Bruce Betting is decent enough.  I think this game will be over at Half Time.

RECOMMENDATION: PITTSBURGH STEELERS TO BEAT THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS BY 6.5pts OR MORE 10/11 BRUCE BETTING

Accordello

I think Shelbourne Aston is the proverbial good thing for the John J Casey 575 in progress currently at Shelbourne Park but 5/2 is short enough. The 2nd round is run tomorrow night and I have an inkling for a young dog that looks a future star (particularly over 700+).

Accordello ran well in defeat last week and at 28/1 an Each Way bet is a must (1/4 odds 1234 Boylesports).

I can see this boy continuing to qualify (a la Aston) and that's good enough for me to have a small interest.

RECOMMENDATION: Accordello 28/1 E/W (1/4 1234) Boylesports

Newbon and Co. back next Tuesday night

The 2009 Sky Sports Greyhound Racing season commences on Tuesday night with the William Hill Prestige final.  Romeo Maldini will go off a warm, if not hot, favourite.

I will be posting my selections on the day and I hope to do better this year than 2008, when in fairness I did better than all the Racing Post and Sky pundits, but profits were small.

I will slightly change the format of the League Table - I will have a standard SP table and a Morning Price table.  Myself and Peter Meldrum, and at times Jimbo and Jonathon Kay, have taken prices with our selections, whereas the likes of Tony Bullen and Jonathon Hobbs havent.  Will be interesting.  I'm sure I would have been slightly in deficit if I hadnt taken the prices on some of my winners.

If any readers wish to get involved in this on a regular basis - I will accept any entries via the comment function only. It should be a bit of fun. You don't have to select dogs in every race either.

Here's a couple of stats from 2008's season.

TALE OF THE JOLLIES

In 32 Feature Races 21 favourites and 2 joint-favourites obliged. That's a decent strike rate. But to put things into perspective, in the 32 feature events, only 9 of the 32 winners returned at odds greater than 2/1.

Of the 261 winners of races on Sky this year, 112 were favourite (or joint/co favourites).

ODDS-ON FAVOURITES

I have the stats to say that backing every odds on shot on the Sky broadcasted meetings will leave you considerably in the red. There were 86 races live on Sky this year where a favourite was returned at odds-on.  If you had backed all of these hot pots, your 50 winners and 36 losers would result in a loss to you of -€833.00 if you had a €100 bet on each.