m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Racing Post Juvenile Card

What an unbelievably good card on Sky next Tuesday night.  Post your selections on this thread.

Sick! Murray out with virus

My bet on Andy Murray to win in Dubai was looking safe, but he withdrew from the Quarter Final today with a virus.

Sickener!

Setanta Sports Tipping League

A new deal was announced today with the live TV schedule announced exclusive to Setanta Sports.  RTE will continue to show the Ladbrokes 600, Oaks and Derby Finals.  Setanta will show the Mike Cronin Juvenile Classic, the Gain Cesarawitch, the Accelerated Drains Corn Cuchaillain, the Cashmans Laurels, the Gain Masters, the Irish Derby Semi Final meeting and the Irish Derby Final meeting, and the Mardocs Holdings Golden Jacket Final.

I will be running a tipping league similar to my Sky Sports league with a couple of tweaks here and there and weekly and overall prizes.

Watch this space.

Saturday 6

The Tote Gold Cup starts on Saturday night and I have never seen a better stake in my time in this game outside of the Irish Derby. The Ladbrokes Golden Jacket Final is on Saturday morning, and the Tyrur Ted Champion Bitch Stake Semis are also on Saturday night.

Here is my Saturday 6 Selection for this week.

Tote Gold Cup

Recommendation: Shelbourne Park R4 BALLYMAC BONDI

Recommendation: Shelbourne Park R5 CONTADOR

Recommendation: Shelbourne Park R6 COLDWATER JOE

Recommendation: Shelbourne Park R9 TYRUR BOMBER

Tyrur Ted Champion Bitch Stake Semi Finals

Recommendation: Galway R6 SLICK SIOUX

Ladbrokes Golden Jacket Final

Recommendation: LORRYS OPTIONS 9/4 Bet365

Ladbrokes Golden Jacket

The final is this Saturday morning at Crayford, live on SIS.

Recommendation: Lorrys Options 9/4 Bet365

Dubai Tennis Championships

Starting today in Dubai, the latest ATP 500 tournament has been decimated by withdrawals - Nadal, Federer, Davydenko, Verdasco all injured. Roddick has also failed to show.

So we are left with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, as well as a few also rans.

Andy Murray is a brilliant 7/5 with Boylesports. Get down the bank and withdraw the lot. Murray on hardcourts is unbeatable at the moment.

Recommendation: Andy Murray 7/5 Boylesports

2 from 6 last night and a small loss

My first Saturday 6selection last night was not a disaster, and was close to turning a profit, but in the end I have to take a 1.5 point loss.  I will turn out 6 tips every Saturday from now on and see what happens.  I am in the red for February and I don't like it so will put the end into the formbooks now and see what I can do.

One piece of information gleaned from last night was that Faypoint Man wants 600 yards and could certainly be an interesting ante post proposition for the Ladbrokes 600, or dare I say it, the English Derby.

Recommendation: Jemmy Doodlebeag R7 Limerick WON 6/4

Recommendation: Puckane Lady R7 Galway LOST

Recommendation: Pretty Imperial R5 Shelbourne Park LOST

Recommendation: Faypoint Man R8 Shelbourne Park LOST

Recommendation: Coldwater Joe R9 Shelbourne Park WON EVENS

Recommendation: Blackstone Gene R11 Shelbourne Park LOST

Saturday Six Year To Date: 2/6; -€1.50

February To Date: 4/17; -€5.36

2009 To Date: 14/44; +€1.78

Saturday 6

A plethora of top class racing in Ireland tomorrow night.  I am aware my tipping activity has been down this month, and as it stands I am a few points in the red for February.

It's not because I haven't been following the form - it's just the racing has been so closely matched.  Even tomorrow there are races I wouldn't dream of getting involved in - the likes of Shelbourne Aston in the Limerick Champion Stakes Final is likely to be Evens or shorter - leave it alone.  The same applies to Barefoot Bryan in the Joe Dunne Memorial Final at Shelbourne Park.  Ditto 3 of the Tyrur Champion Bitch heats at Galway.

But I think I have seen enough of a few of the other races to make it pay tomorrow night.

Recommendation: Jemmy Doodlebeag R7 Limerick

Recommendation: Puckane Lady R7 Galway

Recommendation: Pretty Imperial R5 Shelbourne Park

Recommendation: Faypoint Man R8 Shelbourne Park

Recommendation: Coldwater Joe R9 Shelbourne Park

Recommendation: Blackstone Gene R11 Shelbourne Park

Who'd be a punter on Sky races?

Last year I posted often how I thought the chances of odds-on favourites and favourites in general were not as good when televised on Sky.  Whether that is because favourites are stronger when televised because of the non-doggy folk backing jollies and it distorts the real picture I am not sure.

Last year backing every odds-on shot on Sky would have left you with a significant loss over the year.

2009 has been a disaster for punters. With only 4 meetings gone most punters are already playing catch up (look at the Sky Tipster Table above). 

In the 32 races so far, favourites have won 12 of them (37.5%).  Not too bad. But 20 out of 32 jollies were beaten.  But look at the red hot favourites.  There have been 13 races where the favourite has gone off at Evens or Odds-On.  Only 4 have won.  That's 9 hotpots from 13 that have been turned over. You are looking at HUGE losses for punters here.

When we look at the four finals - Prestige, Birmingham Cup, Springbok and the Arc - only one favourite obliged.  That was Fear Zafonic who won the Birmingham Cup at 4/5.  But the other three favourites were well beaten.  Romeo Maldini was well beaten in the Prestige at odds of 4/6.  Nebuchaddnazzer never lifted a leg in the Springbok at 4/5.  Last night Even money jolly Shaneboy Luke made a complete hash of the start.

is there a jinx at work here?

Pitiful performances by pundits as Corrig Vieri wins the Arc

Another Group 1 for Droopys Vieri as his son deservedly wins the Blue Square Arc at Swindon tonight, but my God what a disastrous night for all pundits.  To tell you how bad it was, I had three tips, all lost, and I finished joint top!

Tonight's scores:

		Wins	Selections	%	Morning Line	SP
1	Mick Livesey	1	5	20.00%	-€3.00	-€3.00
2	manaboutdogblog	0	3	0.00%	-€3.00	-€3.00
	skydogsblog	0	3	0.00%	-€3.00	-€3.00
4	Jonathon Hobbs	1	8	12.50%	-€5.00	-€5.00
5	Jonathon Kay	0	5	0.00%	-€5.00	-€5.00
6	Tony Bullen	0	7	0.00%	-€7.00	-€7.00
	Peter Meldrum	0	7	0.00%	-€7.00	-€7.00
8	Jimbo	0	8	0.00%	-€8.00	-€8.00

YEAR TO DATE  LEAGUE TABLE

		Wins	Selections	%	Morning Line	SP
1	Ken (skydogsblog)	5	18	30.80%	€4.75	€1.12
2	Richard Birch	3	8	37.50%	-€0.67	-€0.67
3	Paul Gebhard	0	2	0.00%	-€2.00	-€2.00
4	Jonathon Kay	7	23	38.90%	-€2.27	-€2.27
5	ClaretFan	0	3	0.00%	-€3.00	-€3.00
6	Jonathon Hobbs	9	32	33.30%	-€4.77	-€4.77
7	manaboutdogblog	4	15	33.30%	-€2.25	-€5.17
8	Mick Livesey	8	25	35.00%	-€2.03	-€5.82
9	Tony Bullen	7	23	43.70%	-€6.40	-€6.40
10	Jimbo	9	33	36.00%	-€6.80	-€6.73
11	Peter Meldrum	3	25	16.70%	-€16.50	-€18.55

Hobbsys Choice YTD after 4 meetings: NAPs 2/4; (50%) NBs 1/4; (25%)  NAP&NB P/L -€1.55