m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Lenson Express runner-up in the Arc

Beaten by Corrig Vieri by 2 lengths, I had him backed at 8/1.  It's a shame as if he hadn't got a bump at the 3rd, it would have been very close.

Novak back to his best

As I predicted Novak Djokovic disposed of his French opponent with ease yesterday winning in straight sets on his return to the circuit.  It will be a very interesting year of tennis with the big 4 all at the top of their games.

Blue Square Arc Final Card: Swindon

I am feeling bullish about tomorrow night's card.  I am going to play in a few races and was greatly tempted to lay two odds-on bitches as well.  But after consultation with Bill Webster's brilliant guide to the UK tracks on the Belle Vue Owners Forum U.K. TRACK FACTS I decided to simply watch these races (8.00 and 9.10) rather than take an active role.

My Selections for the Swindon Sky Meeting 19th Feb 2009

In the 7.40 my bet of the night goes.  Currently 5/2 tonight with Bet365, I can see Brickfield Class making the bend ahead of Eyeonthebrave and it's oi oi all the way.

Recommendation: Brickfield Class 5/2 Bet365

In the 8.00 it's a 285m sprint.  I contemplated laying Miss Lee at Evens byt the 103m run up at Swindon is longer than where she won at Perry Barr and Hall Green, and I will not bet in this race.  I think if she runs the way she did the last couple of times on Sky she will win, but I would not be advising anyone to back her at Evens against the likes of Boherduff Monti and Droopys Bocelli who, crucially, are drawn inside her.

Recommendation: NO BET

In the puppy race at 8.15 over the extended 509m Kinda Easy is short enough at 5/4 and he is not progressive enough for me to invest at that price. Watch this race as well.

Recommendation: NO BET

The 8.35 over 6 bends looks made for Butterbridge Ali. A couple of runners look without a chance and will be priced accordingly, and I think Mark Wallis' son of Soviet Ferrari is a differnt class to this opposition, has a great draw, and will win.  11/8 with Bet365 is big - believe me this dog will start odds-on.

Recommendation: Butterbridge Ali 11/8 Bet365

The 8.50 is a bookies race and I can't make a case for any of them with too many variables, not least the one that sees Analyse, the staying hurdler, run over the standard trip on the flat.  Best watched.

Recommendation: NO BET

In the 9.10 Flying Winner is the big attraction.  This is a big galloping track and you would expect this bitch to find her way out of trouble no problem, even at odds of 1/5. I was going to lay her off but the very long 105m run to the bend over this trip should see them fairly well strung out, and for a laugh I predict the order at the first bend to be Rough Bellamy, Shelbourne Holly, Wise Maldini, Flying Winner, Ballyea Honcho and Heres Shannon.  Wise Maldini is the track specialist but I don't think he is used to meeting this quality on any sort of regular basis, and I espect Rough Bellamy to lead for most of the journey before the great one catches him near home for trainer Chris Lund

Recommendation: NO BET

In the penultimate race  at 9.25I wasn't going to get involved.  But I can't fancy Full Bloom or Goldcrest King.  That leaves Go Gucci Go and Cabra Boss to choose from, and Liz McNair's Cabra Boss at 5/1 looks very well priced.  I'll have a small investment.

Recommendation: Cabra Boss 5/1 Bet365

The main event is at 9.45 and I can't call it.  I am already on Lenson Express at 8/1 so I will not play.

Recommendation: No Bet

Swindon Blue Square Arc Final Card

Here's Thursday night's Arc Final Card live on Sky.

19:40 - The Blue Square Mobile Standard 480m
1. Eye Onthe Brave M A Wallis (Harlow)
2. Brickfield Class R J Gilling
3. Illusionist D R Pruhs (Peterborough)
4. Birchfield Hero P A Sallis (Hall Green)
5. Blue Gent (m) P M Donovan (Wimbledon)
6. Megannellie (w) T Wilkins (Unattached)

20:00 - The Carlsberg Sprint 285m
1. Fatboyz Ace D Childs (Coventry)
2. Boherduff Monti J A White (Yarmouth)
3. Droopys Bocelli (m) E Mcnair (Unattached)
4. Miss Lee (m) D R Pruhs (Peterborough)
5. Critical Time (w) G F Sallis (Sittingbourne)
6. Moatview Storm (w) L D Sams (Unattached)

20:15 - The Blue Square Casino 509 Puppy 509m
1. Razzmatazz S A Howard (Coventry)
2. Cefn Max B E Davy
3. Kinda Easy M A Wallis (Harlow)
4. Forever Famous (m) D B Whitton (Henlow)
5. Stop The Show (m) E Mcnair (Unattached)
6. London Walter (w) D Childs (Coventry)

20:35 - The Blue Square Telebet 0800 587 0200 Stayers 685m
1. Clover Captain N Colton
2. Rebel Ring P H Harnden (Nottingham)
3. Glittering Aries K Billingham (Monmore)
4. Swift Stirling (w) L L G Magnasco (Oxford)
5. Boherash Tapaidh (w) C D Llewellyn
6. Butterbridge Ali (w) M A Wallis (Harlow)

20:50 - Race 5 480m
1. Bueno Boy C S Gomersall
2. Killacolla Fox N D Jones (Unattached)
3. Analyse (m) L D Sams (Unattached)
4. Villamartin Nogo (m) J K Little
5. Droopys Tarzan (w) J G Mullins (Yarmouth)
6. Silverduf Jet (w) H J Dimmock (Peterborough)

21:10 - The Blue Square Marathon 737m
1. Flying Winner C T Lund (Doncaster)
2. Ballyea Honcho P H Harnden (Nottingham)
3. Heres Shannon K Mullins (Harlow)
4. Wise Maldini P V Swadden
5. Shelbourne Holly N Colton
6. Rough Bellamy (m) D B Whitton (Henlow)

21:25 - The Blue Square Poker 509er 509m
1. Full Bloom L D Sams (Unattached)
2. Goldcrest King M A Wallis (Harlow)
3. Cabra Boss (m) E Mcnair (Unattached)
4. Anzio (m) J K Little
5. Go Gucci Go (m) D Childs (Coventry)
6. Lively Lotte (w) H J Dimmock (Peterborough)

21:45 - The Blue Square Arc Final 480m
1. Shaneboy Luke E Mcnair (Unattached)
2. Corrig Vieri M A Wallis (Harlow)
3. Lenson Express A M P Collett (Sittingbourne)
4. Grillagh Guru (m) J K Little
5. Driving Up Pal (w) P A Sallis (Hall Green)
6. Mistley Colonel (w) K Mullins (Harlow)

Golf Tipping

Before you start, no I am not going to give tips on golf.  I don't know how people punt on it with such huge fields and form very hard to follow.

I noticed the Racing Post's Jeremy Chapman gave out an 80/1 tip for the AT&T Pebble Beach tournament, and his selection Dustin Johnson obliged.  He also tipped the 20/1 runner-up.

I would like to see his full year figures before I say too much, but an 80/1 winner is amazing for a tipster - unless he tips half the field.

Djokovic v Chardy in Marseille today

Following my innovative tip on Murray on Sunday where I suggested backing Murray in the set scores rather than to win was the value, I notice Dave Horgan in today's Racing Post opposing Djokovic who returns from injury against the French Chardy.

Horgan suggests that although the 11/2 Chardy is inviting, backing Chardy to win a set is the better move, and by backing all three possibilities (2-1 Djokovic at 7/2, 2-0 Chardy at 14/1 and 2-1 Chardy at 10/1) you would be getting great value.

I'm not sure myself, I can see Djokovic winning handy. One to watch.

Recommendation: NO BET

Unsettled bets

Below is a list of all outstanding bets currently on manaboutdogblog

Those I have highlighted in green are possible winners while I have all but given up on those in red.

Of the greens: Newcastle look certs to finish near the drop zone; Adebayor is on 8 goals to Van Persie's 9; Hearts are currently 3rd behind the Old Firm; Walcott is due to return soon and is sitting on 9 starts; Andy Murray is in great form but is not fancied by the bookies to win a Grand Slam; Lenson Express runs in the Arc final on Thursday night.

Newcastle to finish bottom half 5/4

Adebayor to be Arsenal's top PL scorer 11/8

Hearts to win SPL (without Rangers and Celtic) 4/1

Walcott to start more than 15 Premier League matches (Evs)

Andy Murray to win a Grand Slam Event in 2009 5/4

Lenson Express to win the Arc 8/1

Boro to finish above Newcastle and Sunderland 3/1

Portsmouth to finish above Man City - 5/4

Boro to finish top half - 5/2

Spurs to finish top 6 Evens

Bolton to be relegated 100/30

Drogba to be Chelsea's top scorer 5/4

Manaboutdogblog minted as Murray too hot for Nadal

My tip yesterday on Andy Murray was bang on the money.  If you had backed Murray to win straight you would have got 2.36 (just under 7/5).  But I spotted that if you backed Murray to win 2-0 and 2-1 - they only combinations - you would get odds of about 100/30(4.3) and 4/1 (5.1)respectively for each on the exchanges.

In the end Andy Murray won 6-3, 4-6, 6-0 to collect over €200,000 in prizemoney, and once again my tennis tips are paying off.

Profit on the day of 3.1pts makes for nice reading.

Profit & Loss 2009

I have been very quiet on the betting scene in February with only 8 bets struck with 2 winners and one unsettled.

In January I selected 27 bets and 10 of them came up as winners.  1 bet is still pending.  Profit for 2009 so far is +€7.28. 

Click on the Profit & Loss page above for the full listings of all 880 settled tips since 2007.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

2008 produced a yearly profit of +€67.89 to a  level €1 stake up to and including 31st December. That's a margin of 11.58%

168 winners were found from 586 settled bets (28.67%).

Remember, I am listing these bets as a €1 level stake investment.  I am obviously betting on these at a bigger level. I am not suggesting anyone follows me, but my recommendations are turning profits regularly.  The green months show months where I turned a profit and the reds where I didn't do so well.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Since I started giving out selections way back in 2007 I have recommended 265 winners from 880 settled results   (30.11%).     My running bank for a level €1 bet per selection, with a starting balance of zero is +€105.10.  So if you had a tenner on every one of my bets you would be over a grand in profit, if you had 100 on each you would have over €10,500.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Feb 2009 +0.14

Jan 2009 +€7.14

December 2008 +17.41

November 2008 -€0.65

October 2008    +€11.26

September 2008  -€9.80

August 2008   +€39.12

July 2008       +€27.68

June 2008     -€1.16

May 2008       -€5.73

April 2008      -€7.14

Mar 2008       -€19.53

Feb 2008       +€7.10

Jan 2008       +€9.33

Jan-Dec 2007 +€29.93

 

 

 

 

 

I have been very quiet on the betting scene in February with only 8 bets struck with 2 winners and one unsettled.

In January I selected 27 bets and 10 of them came up as winners.  1 bet is still pending.  Profit for 2009 so far is +€7.28. 

Click on the Profit & Loss page above for the full listings of all 880 settled tips since 2007.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

2008 produced a yearly profit of +€67.89 to a  level €1 stake up to and including 31st December. That's a margin of 11.58%

168 winners were found from 586 settled bets (28.67%).

Remember, I am listing these bets as a €1 level stake investment.  I am obviously betting on these at a bigger level. I am not suggesting anyone follows me, but my recommendations are turning profits regularly.  The green months show months where I turned a profit and the reds where I didn't do so well.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Since I started giving out selections way back in 2007 I have recommended 265 winners from 880 settled results   (30.11%).     My running bank for a level €1 bet per selection, with a starting balance of zero is +€105.10.  So if you had a tenner on every one of my bets you would be over a grand in profit, if you had 100 on each you would have over €10,500.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Feb 2009 +0.14

Jan 2009 +€7.14

December 2008 +17.41

November 2008 -€0.65

October 2008    +€11.26

September 2008  -€9.80

August 2008   +€39.12

July 2008       +€27.68

June 2008     -€1.16

May 2008       -€5.73

April 2008      -€7.14

Mar 2008       -€19.53

Feb 2008       +€7.10

Jan 2008       +€9.33

Jan-Dec 2007 +€29.93

 

 

 

 

 

I have laid Exotic Dancer off

He will probably go on and win it now,  but I have decided to lay my 33/1 ticket on Exotic Dancer at 13/1.  That gives me a trading profit of 2.54 times my original stake.

Have to be happy with that, but as a traditionalist (in betting terms) I still find it hard to 'green-up'.