m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Saturday 6 (2.5.09)

Mark it down - I made a loss on my Saturday 6 selections last week, my first loss for a few weeks.

But I won't be dwelling on it.  The English Derby begins this weekend and there is splendid racing in Shelbourne Park too. It's not halcion times for the dog game, but the quality of racing cannot be faulted.

We'll start at the Don shall we?

Mark Wallis is leading the charge to be Champion Trainer, and he has a strong team of dogs, but to be honest I cannot see a Derby winner in his kennel. But Eye Onthe Brave could be a nice one for Yankees on Saturday as he is in with dogs with big reputations (Soviet Maldini and Tyrur Kenny) that have not settled in the UK yet.  The fact that Brave is only 4th in the betting is crazy shit considering Eye Onthe Brave won an open here a week ago. He will like being on the rails and no trainer's dogs will be fitter than Mark Wallis' dogs at this stage of the Derby. He is priced 4/1 with the sponsors - I'll gamble and take the SP.

RECOMMENDATION: Wimbledon 9.15 Eye Onthe Brave SP

Barnfield On Air - a super dog - but don't really perform at his best at Plough Lane. Saying that he did win twice in the early rounds here last year and made the semis.  But a year is a long time with greyhounds and 'Barney' has been off for a long time.  I backed Mountjoy Ruby at Hall Green recently and to be honest he showed nothing from the coffin box. But drawn in stripes he is a different proposition.  He's not a Derby dog in my book but he is certainly good enough to take advantage of any toruble between the jolly and Eye Eye Pickle who can pace up well.

RECOMMENDATION: Mountjoy Ruby 6/1 Blue Square

There is little to stop Pat Buckley at the moment and Slip The Lark has an absolute peach of a draw in this race. Outside the strong running but moderate starting Bandicoot Tipoki (who is 4/6 and shorter despite his recent defeat) Slip The Lark can pace up ahead of Kinda Easy and it' oi oi oi oi this is the bet of the night.  This dog was touted as a 'Wimbledon dog' throughout 2008 - here is his chance to shine.  The fact that Attykitt Admiral (as gutsy a dog at the bend as any in training) is drawn inside Tipoki strengthens my confidence.

RECOMMENDATION:Wimbledon 10.15 Slip The Lark 2/1 Blue Square

Another Saturday night, another great card at HQ.

The 3rd race on the card is a heat of the Oran Majestic Open 550 stake. Tip And Tin is a dog coming into form again and is possibly a justified favourite. However a dog that I thought ran a peach last week was Pat O'Connor's Christmas Box.  The beaten favourite for the Juvenile Classic in Tralee a few weeks back did a nice trial on his first look (2881) and won his heat of this stake last week in 30.33 - I think the track was 20 slow last week. Expect more improvement in this inexperienced Brett Lee hound.

RECOMMENDATION: Shelbourne Park R3 Christmas Box

I'd love to see Georgeisgorgeous win R5. He walked out of the red box last week and although I am sorely tempted, I will watch this race.

RECOMMENDATION: Shelbourne Park R5 No Bet

The Ladbrokes 600 is a weak renewal this year. Why? 2 words - College Causeway.  When Bucks declared his kennel star was not going to Wimbledon, several dogs ideally suited to Ireland's oldest sponsored Classic, sidestepped it and went into the Oran Majestic 550. Now that is only my opinion but Tip And Tin and Faypoint Man would definitely get 600yards easily enough.

So College Causeway is probably not going to be a proposition for punting as I can see 1/5 on the board for this lad.  If we get good weather, I think the clock goes in this stake.

Dundrum Minor is fast becoming a favourite of mine - he makes me money regularly which is always good and he is similar to Shelbourne Aston in that he is a regular winner of the bumper at HQ.  I think if he clears Blackstone Gene he wins.  UK raider Droopys Carvalho is a major player in this if he takes to the track - don't mind these muppets that belittle the UK form - this dog can run.  He will come on for the run.

RECOMMENDATION: Shelbourne Park R9 Dundrum Minor

R10 - one word - A-C-C-O-R-D-E-L-L-O

Recommendation: Shelbourne Park R10 Accordello

Year To Date Saturday 6 : 23/49 +4.42pts

Grant makes final

Tipped up last week, Westmead Grant qualified last night for next Tuesday's Skybet Peterborough Puppy Derby Final and is now favourite at 3/1 with the sponsors.

Now all I have to do is green up and count the cash ......or will I let it ride?

I'm on at 20/1 EW 1234 (0.5pts)

Mick The Man

Got the tip for this horse earlier today. All the 14s has gone and he is now a best priced 8/1 with Blue Square and William Hill.

This horse has lots of gears, but the few times I have seen him it appears he may be a little reluctant to hit the front.  Saying that, he looks a banker to finish in the frame so I advise a place bet freely available at 2/1(general) to make the first four places.

RECOMMENDATION: 605 PUNCHESTOWN MICK THE MAN (PLACE) 2/1

Pundits begin to earn their wages as Lorrys Options wins the Regency

The Sky and Racing Post pundits are starting to produce profits on a weekly basis.  Hobbsy and Phil Donaldson (standing in for Peter Meldrum) are having a purple patch and topped the performance table last night.

Hobbsy's Nap (Silverduf Jet) was well beaten but his NB(Moatview Storm) was well backed and won well at 7/2 in from 6s.  His running tally on Naps(4/11) and NBs(4/11) is a combined YTD loss of 1.9pts.

On a personal level I am grinding out a profit - 4 meetings on the trot now - and am edging closer to profits (I am green on my morning line which is what counts for me as that's how I bet).

The main event was won by Westmead Hawk dog Lorrys Options last night as he won in style.  Unfortunately, as predicted here yesterday, favourite Capel Wilson met trouble last night and very sadly injured his hock and did not finish the race.

Last night's performances.

POS	TIPSTER	WINS	TIPS	STRIKE RATE	MORNING LINE P&L	SP P&L
1	JONATHON HOBBS	4	8	50.0%	€7.67	€7.67
2	JONATHON KAY	4	8	50.0%	€4.35	€4.35
3	PHIL DONALDSON	2	4	50.0%	€6.50	€3.50
4	MANABOUTDOGBLOG	1	3	33.3%	€2.50	€0.50
5	CLARETFAN	0	4	0.0%	-€4.00	-€4.00
6	SKYDOGSBLOG	0	5	0.0%	-€5.00	-€5.00
7	PATRICK KELLY	2	8	25.0%	-€5.15	-€5.15
8	JIMBO	1	10	10.0%	-€5.50	-€6.50

Year To Date Tipping Performance Table After 10 Sky Meetings

POS	TIPSTER	WINS	TIPS	STRIKE RATE	MORNING LINE P&L	SP P&L
1	SkyDogsBlog	12	40	30.0%	€14.00	€5.79
2	Jonathon Hobbs	30	87	34.5%	€5.56	€5.56
3	Phil Donaldson	6	18	33.3%	€9.25	€4.50
4	ClaretFan	8	34	23.5%	€5.33	-€0.13
5	Paul Gebhard	0	2	0.0%	-€2.00	-€2.00
6	Darrell Williams	13	35	37.1%	-€2.36	-€2.36
7	Tony Bullen	19	54	35.2%	-€5.46	-€5.46
8	manaboutdogblog	14	45	31.1%	€0.97	-€5.98
9	Jonathon Kay	20	62	32.3%	-€10.10	-€10.10
10	Richard Birch	6	24	25.0%	-€11.05	-€11.05
11	Jimbo	24	80	30.0%	-€21.05	-€22.35
12	Mick Livesey	9	42	21.4%	-€18.98	-€22.77
13	Peter Meldrum	6	46	13.0%	-€28.25	-€32.50

Tonight's TV Trio for Hove

In form Raithby Toure is available currently at 100/30 with William Hill and whilst I am wary of the 2007 English Derby Winner Westmead Lord in trap 6, this is his first race for 10 months and will really need to ping to win and odds of 9/2 compared to the selection do not stack up.

RECOMMENDATION: 8.00 Raithby Toure 100/30 William Hill

Silverduff Jet is a dog in form and likely to go off at around 5/1 in a very open race that includes Droopys Carvalho, I really fancy the well drawn pinger Silverduf Jet in the orange sheet.

RECOMMENDATION: 9.10 Silverduff Jet SP

The main event is the Coral Regency Final and common sense would suggest that the jolly will win.  Capel Wilson is Greyhound Of The Month for March and has kept it up through April. I still think he is a bit clumsy and therefore prone to trouble and will oppose him with Lorrys Options (who has been 2nd to Wilson in his last 3 races).  Dean Childs' Golden Jacket hero is priced attractively at 9/2 and will be finishing very strongly.

RECOMMENDATION: 9.45 Lorrys Options 9/2 Paddy Power

Coral Regency Final (Sky)

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2009-04-28&meetingId=5

The card for tomorrow is above. Please post your selections on this thread.

Interesting runner in the sprint - Westmead Lord the 2007 Derby winner is in trap 6.

Update

As April approaches its end I am in a deficit situation yet again.  I seemed to have stemmed the tide earlier in the week but a shocker in my Saturday 6 last night put paid to the revival.

I think I have stopped my poor run though and there are a few ante-post bets that have come down hugely in price or are about to pay off.

Theo Walcott started for Arsenal again today and he needs to start 3 of the Gunners's last 4 games for me to get paid at evens - I have him to start more than 15 games this season and he is on 13. Touch and go.

Westmead Grant who flew the other night at Peterborough obliged at 7/4 for me, and my ante-post voucher at 20/1 (1/2pt EW) is very healthy. He is a best price 12/1 with Boyles and Paddy Powers now - I will hold on for another round before trading in.

A 1pt EW bet on Vera Zvonareva was advised for the French Open earlier in the year and the Russian star is being steadily backed.  I am now seriously considering trading in my win part of the bet on the exchanges and have a free place bet at 1/2 odds 1,2.  Vera is 8,9 and 10/1 but a standout 12/1 with extrabet.  She is trading at 12.5/1 on Betfair and can be laid at a point higher for €120. Thinking about it.

I got Greenwell River at 66s and he has already been trimmed to 50s for the Derby.

Hearts are still 5 points clear of their nearest rivals for the 3rd spot - I have the Jammies at 4/1. Come on!

A few others are riding still - hoping for a lift before the Derby next week!

Greenwell River

The way I usually bet in the big competitions is I like ti get a few dogs at big prices and lay them off after a couple of rounds and basically have them 'running for me' for free.  Obviously that plan went a bit astray last year in Dublin when I refused to lay off my Shelbourne Aston ticket - luckily he got up and won!

I have already advised a 1pt EW bet at 100/1 on Droopys Lee. Today I am adding Greenwell River to my 'portfolio' and am advising a 1pt win bet at 66/1 with VC Bet.

RECOMMENDATION: GREENWELL RIVER 1pt Win 66/1 VCBet

Uncle Ollie

He is running at HQ tomorrow night but not before he has a nice blowout at the Cross tonight. Has a great chance.

RECOMMENDATION: UNCLE OLLIE 9.55 HAROLDS CROSS

Peterborough Puppy Derby

Starts tonight. I have recieved word on a pup of Nick Savva's that is likely to go off at around 5/2 tonight.  Westmead Grant looks a real promising sort by Droopys Scolari out of Mega Delight.

RECOMMENDATION:  8.40 Peterborough Westmead Grant (SP)

He is worth a small bet ante-post also. He is available at 20/1 with Coral so a half point e/w is advised.

RECOMMENDATION: Peterborough Puppy Derby Outright Westmead Grant 0.5pt EW 20/1 Coral