m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Saturday 6 (25/4/09)

I am chipping away on my Saturday 6 and making modest but steady profits every week - last week was another profitable enterprise with 3 winners and 1.06pts added to the blog.  This week is tough - boy it's tough.

The year is flying - spring is approaching it's final month and May is a real mouthwaterer - but April can still make the blog some profits.  The quality racing at Shelbourne Park is relentless - it keeps coming and coming, week after week.  Luckily the www.igb.ie site's videos are a great resource for any punters like myself even if the live streaming is extremely frustrating.

The Shelbourne Aston Open Unraced Stake Final is up for decision and this race worth €10,000 of a fast pup appeals to me, I think I can unlock the tale of the race - although these are pups and unpredictable.

The fastest pup in the race would appear to be Mesedo Blue - winner of all his 3 races for Seamus Graham. However the son of Climate Control is not getting going until the back straight and I think he could meet trouble in this race with two dogs that look like they like the rails drawn outside him.

In red - for the 4th consecutive time - is Fraser Black's Krug Ninety Five.  He appears to be improving at traps by the race - 2.23, 2.16 and 2.11 splits confirm this theory - and I think he clears the 2 and 3 (Mesedo) with ease to the bend.  28.78 like he did in the first round from this berth would win this final for him - and his owners the Dynamic Duo aka Messrs Blunt and Wakefield of Droopys Maldini et al fame.  It's quite funny because a few readers of this blog and myself used to have a good little chuckle about the GNM and the Dynamic Duo quaffing Moet - and here are the duo with a fine hound named after a bottle of champers.  And the dog used to be called Tottenham Corner!

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R3 KRUG NINETY FIVE

Then the Oran Majestic Open 550 gets underway. This stake is very competitive and the first few heats are very tough indeed.  Not until Heat 5 do I see a bet and that is Express Officer. This monster of a dog is opposed by 'bitch in form' Skywalker Queen but this dog has raw pace as his 28.58 recent trial shows.  He is far from a favourite but I think the fact that its a few weeks since he trialled here shows that Michael Dalton is aiming this dog at Shelbourne for the Summer.  He could be a nice value bet on a very tricky card. The Queen is likely to go off at odds on and should be opposed - Officer is as good a bet as any to take her on with.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R8 EXPRESS OFFICER

Immediately afterwards Clonmel challenger Georgeisgorgeous would appear to have it all to do in his first race in the smoke. It is clear that Clonmel has been running fast, but he came up and did a 28.61 last weekend on his first look.  He is drawn in red with the slowish starting favourite Barefoot Bryan  directly outside him.  I actually think promising Tralee raider Christmas Box will hamper Bryan and it's count your cash as George romps to victory.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R9 GEORGEISGORGEOUS

I could continue with the red theme here after 3 trap 1 selections at HQ, and whilst I think Chieftain is the fastest dog to the bend at Shelbourne Park this last 9 months, I can't back him in what is a really tough race. One for the Pick 7.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R10 NO BET

Kevin Losty's Dundrum Minor has won me a few bob this last few months and drawn directly outside his biggest threat, the slow away Rathanny Billy, Dundrum Minor is guaranteed a run to the bend and although Shades Of Jonah will be on the premises, Dundrum Minor-fresh after a week away from HQ - should win the bumper and throw a few bob into punters' pockets ready for the pub.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R11 DUNDRUM MINOR

Winch Woody started his career in fine fashion but has gone 5 without a win taking on very good dogs with more experience. I would expect him to run well from his favoured trap 4 on Saturday lunchtime but I won't back him. I wouldn't back against this son of Ningbo Jack and Bantiss Princess in this A1 contest though.

RECOMMENDATION: ROMFORD 1.33 NO BET

Charlie Lister has inherited a lot of PJ Fahy's dogs in preparation for a tilt at a 4th Derby crown, but another addition is Tyrur Rodge who goes at Sheffield on Saturday night and back at the scene of his Trainers Championship victory in the same trap he makes great appeal. However, and there is usually a however, Hillcross Legend ran a stormer at Hall Green on Tuesday. Weighing it up, on this almost circular track that is notoriously difficult to pass/overtake on, I think Rodge leads from traps and holds on.

RECOMMENDATION: SHEFFIELD 8.55 TYRUR RODGE

Finally on the same card, Barrie Draper's Magna Boycott did a 'right run' last time out and looks to have the measure of these opponents on Saturday night.

RECOMMENDATION: SHEFFIELD 9.10 MAGNA BOYCOTT

SATURDAY 6 YEAR TO DATE: 22/43; +€8.67

Irish Puppy Oaks

Starts tonight and as usual there are very few big names in it - but you can be sure there will be a few big ones coming out of it. In the last couple of years alone the following ladies entered the stake at Shelbourne Park practically off the radar and when they came out of it they had much bigger profiles:

Kildallon Maid; Almost Chilli; Another Issue; Light Shift; Miss Lee; Hillcroft Josie; Shelbourne Merc; Champagne Linda; Parnell Daisy; Mustang Miranda; Ms Firecracker; Razldazl Pearl; Shawanda; Alexandrova; Catunda Marie; Loreto Sally; O'Learys Peggy; Droopys Stacey; Shelbourne Becky; Golf Crazy; Tyrur Glenda; Vesuvius; Grayslands Pixie; Grayslands Flo, etc etc.

Plenty of Oaks Winners and Gr.1 Finalists in that list. Pay attention tonight!

Tonight I really fancy backing Shelbourne Dawn. She has been targeted at this competition and bounced back to form at the right time last week when winning in 28.85 from the wrong box. Tonight she has trap 4 and if coming away on terms she should make the bend and then it's her race to lose. She could be a skinny price and as you know my mantra is DONT BACK ODDS ON PUPS so for that reason I am advising a bet ONLY if she is available at Evens or better.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE DAWN Puppy Oaks 1st Round (IF EVENS OR BETTER)

Blue Square English Derby 2009

The close for entries was today and 147 of the best dogs in these islands were entered (check bantissgreyhounds.blogs for the full entry).

Before a draw is made I am having my first bet of the Derby and will have a nice interest in Droopys Lee who ran a stonking trial last night.

The son of Westmead Hawk and Droopys Maddy is a very strong runner and is the type that will keep qualifying - a must for a 6 run stake.  Lee is a son of a double English Derby winner and a nephew of the current Irish Derby champ

Droopys Lee is available at 100/1 with the sponsors and they are offering each way terms of 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6 so basically 25/1 to make the final.

RECOMMENDATION: DROOPYS LEE 100/1 EW BLUE SQUARE

I will possibly be adding another couple of long odds chances before we start in earnest a week next Friday night.

Profits in Birmingham

The card at Hall Green looked tough last night but I made 5.8pts profit for the blog and I managed to eat into my deficit in the tipping league.

SkyDogsBlog and ClaretFan are clear at the top of the league, but most of the pros gave a good account of themselves last night including Jonathon Hobbs who was mustard getting 5 from 8 and nearly 9pts profit. Hobbsy's Choice Naps and NBs for the year so far stand at 4/10 NAPS and 3/10 NBs and a loss on these of 4.4pts. His nap last night was Platinumlancelot who was superb.

Jonathon Kay was the only pro not to turn green - but he didn't select 4/1 winner Blonde Fern in the main event as he had tipped her at 16s Ante Post.

Here's last night's performances.

POS	TIPSTER	Wins	Tips	Strike Rate	Morning Line	SP Profit
1	Jonathon Hobbs	5	8	62.50%	€8.62	€8.62
2	ClaretFan	2	3	66.67%	€5.83	€2.87
3	manaboutdogblog	2	4	50.00%	€5.80	€2.37
4	Phil Donaldson	2	6	33.33%	€1.75	€1.75
5	Tony Bullen	3	8	37.50%	€1.62	€1.62
6	SkyDogsBlog	1	3	33.33%	€1.50	-€0.63
7	Jonathon Kay	2	7	28.57%	-€1.00	-€1.00
8	Jimbo	0	8	0.00%	-€8.00	-€8.00

The overall table is looking pretty interesting now.

POS	TIPSTER	Wins	Tips	Strike Rate	Morning Line	SP Profit
1	SkyDogsBlog	12	35	34.29%	€19.00	€10.79
2	ClaretFan	8	30	26.67%	€9.33	€3.87
3	Phil Donaldson	4	14	28.57%	€2.75	€1.00
4	Paul Gebhard	0	2	0.00%	-€2.00	-€2.00
5	Jonathon Hobbs	26	79	32.91%	-€2.11	-€2.11
6	Darrell Williams	13	35	37.14%	-€2.36	-€2.36
7	Tony Bullen	19	54	35.19%	-€5.46	-€5.46
8	manaboutdogblog	13	42	30.95%	-€1.53	-€6.48
9	Richard Birch	6	24	25.00%	-€11.05	-€11.05
10	Jonathon Kay	16	54	29.63%	-€14.45	-€14.45
11	Jimbo	24	80	30.00%	-€15.55	-€15.85
12	Mick Livesey	9	42	21.43%	-€18.98	-€22.77
13	Peter Meldrum	6	46	13.04%	-€28.25	-€32.50

Down with the Gunners

I don't normally back against them as my judgement is usually clouded through my extreme dislike for this club from South London.

However they are finally there for the taking - I think Wenger will be concentrating on the Champions League now that Villa are not in the hunt for the 4th spot and qualification for next year's Champion's League.

Tonight Arsenal head to Anfield with a weakened side and Liverpool must be fancied to steamroller over this young side.  Liverpool are an amazing 5/6 with Blue Square and VCBet and that is enough for me to have a nice cut on them.

RECOMMENDATION: Liverpool to beat Arsenal 5/6 VCBet, Blue Square

And another little gem that has to be worth a small interest is that Arsenal will lose all 3 games against the 'big 3' as they are now being called - Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool.  Well tonight at Anfield is a cert in my book.  Then Arsenal will shortly travel to Old Trafford in the league - United will win that.  The only tricky one is on May 10th when Arsenal host Chelsea.  But crucially this is not bang in the middle of the Champions League semi finals and takes place 7 days later, so Chelsea will field a full side as they chase the Premiership crown.

So would you offer 10/1 that Arsenal don't get a point? It's massive.

RECOMMENDATION: Arsenal to lose against Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea 10/1 VCBet

Sky Selections 21/4/09

Another desperately hard card at Hall Green tomorrow night - the bookies are sure to win again.

For that reason I am keeping my bets to just 3 races.

Farloe Flapjack is ideally housed in red and with the market principals housed in the outside traps, and a dog likely to step right from teh 2 box, I think Flapjack has a great opportunity to make all here.  If trap 5 Moatview Storm can break a bit better than usual he might even hamper the jolly Officer Donagh.

RECOMMENDATION: 8.00 Farloe Flapjack 9/2 William Hill

In the penultimate race on the card I like the look of Silverduf Jet who was very unlucky not to make the final of the Blue Riband.  Blessed with early pace and the only wide seed in the race, this runner looks sure of a clear run and for that reason will be carrying the manaboutdogblog shrapnel.

RECOMMENDATION: 9.25 Silverduf Jet 100/30 William Hill

The main event is possibly the most open featur final for quite some time with all 6 runners holding chances. However I think this race will be decided by which of Mark Wallis' three runners are clear at the first bend.  Mountjoy Ruby is a confirmed wide runner and on the face of it would appear to have a lot to do from the coffin box. But I think he has the gears to clear Toosey Blue and Blonde Fern who has lost her trapping boots.

Housed directly inside Ruby is kennelmate Goldcrest King. Whoever wins this battle wins the race, and I think Ruby has more firepower. 

On the rails is the likely favourite Jogadusc Ace (formerly Mountjoy Gold) who is a comrade of the selection, and is unbeaten in the stake thus far posting very slick times. I think his race will be over when he steps out (as he does) and is crowded by the veteran Lenson Express who wants the rails.

So it will be a shootout between Goldcrest King and Mountjoy Ruby, with the latter stealing a march on him in the run up and holding the lead all the way. Ruby is available at such a good price that I am playing both chances and going 1pt Each Way 1/4 odds 1,2

RECOMMENDATION: 9.45 Mountjoy Ruby 6/1 Each Way Boylesports, BetFred

We have the technology!

Was out walking dogs up the Devils Bit tonight, and I got a call to back a horse Mountain Heather in the 8.00 at Tramore.  Now I was too far from home to get back to the laptop so couldn't get the tip up on here in time, but I was able to get my bet on through my mobile.

However the reception up there was very ropey and it was a job getting the bet done.  I managed to flash off a couple of text messages (you know who you are and sorry to anyone I didn't get to) before I lost the signal completely.  Frustrating to say the least!

Anyway I got home just in time for the off to watch the horse win very well at odds of 14/1.

Gutted in a way as although I am a richer man tonight, my manaboutdogblog could have done with the 16.8pts profit an each way tip would have brought!

William Hill Blue Riband card on Sky tomorrow night

Post your selections on this thread.

Man Utd v Everton FA Cup Semi Final

There is no way United are winning this by 3.

Everton have a squeak in this game - I wouldnt back them to win it straight in 90mins at 4/1 though. 

Powers have made a mistake here.

RECOMMENDATION: EVERTON (+3)  3/5 PADDY POWER

Hearts to beat Falkirk

Hearts 5/4 to win at Falkirk. Although they havent won this fixture in last 4 efforts, they are a team in form having secured 15 of their last 18 points.  Falkirk are rock bottom compared to Hearts who are a clear 3rd.

Recommendation: Hearts to beat Falkirk 5/4 VCBet