m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Sky Tipping League after 14 shows

POS	TIPSTER	WINS	TIPS	STRIKE RATE	MORNING LINE P&L	SP P&L
1	Phil Donaldson	6	18	33.33%	€9.25	€4.50
2	SkyDogsBlog	13	47	27.66%	€10.50	€1.54
3	Jonathon Hobbs	35	110	31.82%	-€0.22	-€0.22
4	Paul Gebhard	0	2	0.00%	-€2.00	-€2.00
5	Darrell Williams	13	35	37.14%	-€2.36	-€2.36
6	ClaretFan	10	45	22.22%	€4.33	-€3.38
7	Tony Bullen	19	54	35.19%	-€5.46	-€5.46
8	manaboutdogblog	17	58	29.31%	-€2.28	-€8.18
9	Jonathon Kay	24	79	30.38%	-€13.05	-€13.05
10	Peter Meldrum	8	54	14.81%	-€3.00	-€18.50
11	Richard Birch	14	54	25.93%	-€18.50	-€18.50
12	Mick Livesey	9	44	20.45%	-€20.98	-€24.77
13	Jimbo	29	105	27.62%	-€33.78	-€36.17

Rusty comeback for Sharapova?

Maria Sharapova has been off for a long time. Instead of being world no.1 like she was a few years back, the Russian beauty is outside the top 100.

She returned in Warsaw last week winning a couple of matches but steps up to the Grand Slam plate now facing Anastasiya Yakimova. The Bulgarian is not top class but has notched a couple of low grade clay competitions this year and could well take a set off Maria.

The favourite is 1/4 and Yakimova is 6/5 to win a set. But I prefer the look of the 7/4 that William Hill are offering on the match going to 3 sets.

RECOMMENDATION: MATCH TO GO TO 3 SETS 7/4 WILLIAM HILL

French Open Tennis 2009

I made a nice profit last year backing Ana Ivanovic at 12/1 pre-event. Since then she has imploded on court and plummeted in the world rankings.

She showed some sign of improvement this spring and she should be kept the right side of in the early stages this year. But she is not the winner this time around.

Dinara Safina is the tournament favourite and deservedly so. She was very strong in Madrid and the World No.1 is so athletically superior to the majority of her opponents on the circuit that she has such a big chance this time around she has to be considered for outright glory.

RECOMMENDATION: Dinara Safina to win French Open 4/1 Blue Square

Last year I thought Maria Sharapova would have won her quarter but just failed, and this time around the Russian who has been off the scene for a long time cannot really be backed with any confidence.  She is in the same quarter as Venus Williams and Vera Zvonareva and that cannot be a help to her.

What is in her favour though is that Zvonareva has lost form from her great start in January and February. I backed Vera at 20/1 each way and have since laid off the win part of my bet at 13/1.  I still think she has a good chance of going all the way but the money does not suggest that. She has drifted back out to 20s and 25s now.

But on the subject of Sharapova, I will be trying to get her in the early rounds backing outsiders to win sets etc. Watch this space.

The women's scene is far more open than the men's as can be witnessed by the carousel that is the World No.1 spot.  A couple of young players that I have been following closely are the Dane Caroline Wozniacki who is available to back at 5/1 to win her quarter. This section contains the out of sorts Jalena Jankovic who is available to back at 6/4.

Daniella Hantuchova is overpriced at 33/1 and is worth a bet, soI'm going to have a speculative (ie small) bet on her and a nice play Caroline Wozniacki to win this Quarter.

RECOMMENDATION: Hantuchova 0.5pt to win the 3rd Quarter 33/1 Bet365

RECOMMENDATION: Wozniacki 1pt to win the 3rd Quarter 5/1 Stan James

Serena Williams has a good record here and to see her quoted at 2/1 on Betfair this afternoon to win the 4th Quarter is amazing (€56 can be matched at present). Svetalana Kuznetzova is fancied by most pundits to make the semi-finals but at Evens she is no value at all, and Serena could just do it again.

RECOMMENDATION: Serena Williams to win the 4th Quarter 2/1 Betfair

In the mens event I guess it looks like Nadal and Federer and I can't get excited over anyone elses chances to be honest - i suppose it is not beyond the realms of possibility that maybe Novak could pull off a shock at a big price.

RECOMMENDATION: MENS FRENCH OPEN NO BET

MANABOUTDOG TENNIS LEDGER: 43 SETTLED BETS: 17 WINS: PROFIT +4.72pts

2009: 34 SETTLED BETS: 9 WINS: LOSS -10.96pts

2008: 16 SETTLED BETS: 8 WINS: PROFIT +15.68pts

Final weekend of domestic football.

It was a really good season (if you weren't punting).

I often read Tony Cascarino in the Racing Post and I think for an ex-pro he is clueless.

In today's Post he tips Villa to beat Newcastle at 7/5. Now that is a value bet - but value means nothing if it don't come in. He is looking at Villa in 6th and Newcastle in 18th and thinking how can Villa be odds-against at home. I understand his logic.

But if you read his column he is pally with Martin O'Neill and is basing his bet on loyalty in my opinion. He says Villa will be motivated - bullshit. Villa have been the least motivated team in the Premiership -with the exception of West Brom and Hull- since Christmas.

I have read a few commentators lately saying that Martin O'Neill is overrated as a manager. I totally agree and have said it for years. If you discount his results in Scotland (you either win the League or you come second) his record is average enough. Yes he performed ok at Wycombe in the bottom level, and he won the League Cup at Leicester. But what has he done at Villa?  They have been crap the last six months and when you consider Arsenal are deemed to have underperformed, yet they turned a 1 point deficit on Villa into a 10 point lead, then you can see how bad Villa have been.  Villa have not improved one iota on last season and I think we could see the likes of Gareth Barry, Agbonlahor and Young exit this sumer.

Cascarino also tips Chelsea at Evens to win at Sunderland and Hull to get a draw versus Man United's reserves.

I think the 3 of his tips will go close - but I still think he is not very clued up.

Onto my bet of the weekend, I watched a dogged Millwall defence easily snuff out Leeds in front of 37,000 Yorkshiremen, and that was a very good performance indeed.

At Wembley tomorrow I think Millwall will be too strong for Scunthorpe. 6-4 to win in 90mins is tight enough with the draw a very possible outcome (6 of the last 12 games that have seen one of these two teams in action has resulted in a draw) and Millwall are 5/6 to get promoted.  I expect a tight game with Millwall not giving away much. Extra time is a strong possibility.

I don't like the lottery of extra time when mistakes are mead OR penalties, and I see the best bet as being Millwall to win in 90 mins at 5/6 with SkyBet DRAW NO BET.

RECOMMENDATION: MILLWALL TO WIN IN 90MINS 5/6 SKYBET DRAW NO BET

Tonight's Sky tips from the Racing Post

Peter Meldrum's Pricewise column in today's Racing Post is worth the €2.60 admission alone. 

The Guru waxes lyrical about the Dog Whisperer and aludes to Jonathon Kay's physique is more suitable for the hurdles LOL

So what does Meldrum go for tonight? Well he is very strong about Ballymac Ruso and he says Bubbly Maestro is value at 4/1 and would back it at 7/2. I got him at 5s.

Meldrum's picks.

Blonde Dino 755 3/1 Paddy Power.  Unfortunately this doesnt count as it is not live on Sky

Tyrur Hestor 8.10 7/2 William Hill

Ballymac Ruso 9.25 9/4

Bubbly Maestro 9.40 4/1 Skybet

Don Expert Richard Birch has his work cut out tonight. If he can turn a profit tonight he will earn his wages.

Ninja Jamie

Boherna Best

Bomber Bailey NAP

Freedom Man

Platinumlancelot

Wise Thought

Cabra Boss

Jonathon Kay

Tyrur Hestor 7/2 Hills

Ballymac Ruso

Cabra Boss

Wally

Bantiss Dermot returns to action this evening in an open. Would have to have a strong chance drawn in red in this competitive looking open.

RECOMMENDATION: Bantiss Dermot 9.04 Romford

Saturday Night's Sky Card: Enter Selections Here

Here are tomorrow night's 7 Sky Races from Wimbeldon.  My 3 selections and prices are on the Saturday 6 thread - Tyrur Hestor, Fear Zafonic (9/4) and Bubbly Maestro (5/1).

Race 1 Derby Plate Heat 2

Ninja Jamie  C R Lister (Unattached)
Lenson Express  A M P Collett (Sittingbourne)
Droopys Director (w) C Duggan (Unattached)
Tyrur Hestor (w) C R Lister (Unattached)
Mountjoy Ruby (w) M A Wallis (Harlow)
Franks Lad (w) P W Young (Romford)
 

Race 3 Derby Plate Heat 4

Goldcrest King  M A Wallis (Harlow)
Attykitt Admiral  S R Gresham (Unattached)
Head Iton Ellis  S Race (Unattached)
Boherna Best (m) B Draper (Sheffield)
Glynnscross Mal (m) J M Burridge (Poole)
Toosey Blue (w) A W Dean (Henlow)

Race 4 Champion Hurdle 1st Heat

Bomber Bailey  M A Wallis (Harlow)
Punchie  M A Cumner (Sittingbourne)
Forest Tyson  J T Foster 
The Other Outlaw  J T Foster 
Cats My Boy (w) J T Foster 
Eye Onthe Flame (w) M A Wallis (Harlow) 

Race 5 Champion Hurdle 2nd Heat

Bubbly Magic  P W Young (Romford)
Little Boy  M L Locke (Romford)
Rockburst Mason  M A Wallis (Harlow)
Freedom Man (m) M L Locke (Romford)
Helenas Rock (m) A J Taylor 
Stevensonsrocket (m) B D O'sullivan (Crayford)

Race 6 Champion Hurdle 3rd Heat

Comans Joe  J T Foster 
Platinumlancelot  J T Foster   
Sonyador  B D O'sullivan (Crayford)
Tommy Bahama  J T Foster 
Love Lynx (m) M L Locke (Romford)
Lodge Magic (w) M A Cumner (Sittingbourne) 

Race 7 Derby First Semi

Jogadusc Ace  M Wallis (Harlow)
Fear Zafonic  C Lister (Unattached)
Ballymac Ruso M J Dartnall(Coventry)
Shelbourne Denny (m) P Curtin (Ireland)
Wise Thought (w) M White (Unattached)
Stop The Show (w) E Mcnair (Unattched) 

Race 8 Derby 2nd Semi

Glenard Sunrise  M J Dartnall (Coventry)
Farloe Reason  C R Lister (Unattached)
Kinda Ready  M Wallis (Harlow)
Love Mac  P Curtin (Ireland)
Cabra Boss  (w) E Mcnair (Unattched) 
Bubbly Maestro (w) P Donavon

Saturday 6 (23.5.09)

For the first week in months the best racing is not at Shelbourne Park(Oaks starts next week).  Wimbledon, Cork, even Thurles, boast very competitive cards this week.

But we start at HQ for the final of the Ladbrokes 600 which is televised live on RTE. The racing starts early so don't get caught out!

I am already on Accordello to win the Ladbrokes 600 at 6/1. He is trading 1t 5/2 and 11/4 in places. If you are not on this tool get on him now. Drawn perfectly inside College Causeway who apparently only needs to turn up to win, I will make a bold prediction.  If Accordello leads he will not get caught.  If Causeway leads, Accordello could catch him.

RECOMMENDATION: 8.15 Shelbourne Park Ladbrokes 600 Final NO BET (unless you have not followed me already!!)

The undercard has a few tough ones. To be honest I am not that comfortable this week and could suffer losses.

But Shades Of Soul looks good in the opening race - a 6 bend affair that will see Hello Hippy go off a short priced favourite.  Shades Of Soul has lots of early and Marie Gilbert's runner will win if Hippy gets any sort of trouble - and quite possibly even if she doesn't.  Droopys Frings is one for tricasts.

RECOMMENDATION: 7.31 Shelbourne Park SHADES OF SOUL

In the next televised race, the Ladrokes 600 Consolation, Must Be Keano has the gears to get a berth on the rails, and with the exception of the fast Rathanny Billy, Fraser Black's dog is a step above this opposition.

RECOMMENDATION 7.45 Shelbourne Park MUST BE KEANO

A decent bitch contest follows and a rejuvenated Shingaun Stan must be respected here in her preparartion for the Irish Oaks which starts next weekend. But in a race that includes the bang in form Another Issue and Black Queen I won't be getting involved

RECOMMENDATION 8.00 Shelbourne Park NO BET

Droopys Laura is an interesting runner in the 575 contest. Tapped for a bit of early pace in the recent Puppy Oaks over the standard trip, the successful combo of Francis Murray and Alan Dunne could come up trumps here. Challenging Times in the red box is the danger.

RECOMMENDATION: 9.15 Shelbourne Park DROOPYS LAURA

There is also the little matter of the English Derby semi finals taking place at Wimbledon.

Fear Zafonic, long time favourite for this event has drawn the 2 box. This bang railer has got the white jacket for the last 4 rounds, but this time he can take advantage and ping out ahead of Jogadusc Ace in the red.  Current jolly for outright honours Wise Thought is poetry in motion, but drawn in trap 5 he is likely to be hampered early on by Rab McNair's Stop The Show. This scenario leads me to believe that Fear Zafonic will be first 'on puss' and we know that when that happens he is never beaten. Ballymac Ruso may have peaked too soon.

RECOMMENDATION: English Derby First Semi Final: FEAR ZAFONIC 9/4 William Hill

The second semi final looks tougher. Matt Dartnell's Glenard Sunrise is a pinger and that has to be bad news for Farloe Reason drawn directly outside him.  Expect bumping in the run up which will give surprise package Bubbly Maestro enough time to build a lead on the outside. Has to be value at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

RECOMMENDATION: English Derby Second Semi Final: BUBBLY MAESTRO 5/1 Ladbrokes

On the undercard we have the 3 semi finals of the Champion Hurdle which I will not be playing on, and the Derby Plate.  Tyrur Hestor for me stands out as a dog that will trap and build up a sufficient lead to the turn. He has not become a bad dog overnight and he can give PJ Fahy something to smile about.

RECOMMENDATION: English Derby Plate Heat 2 TYRUR HESTOR

BONUS TIP

The 'PLUS' experiment didn't fail miserably last week so here's an extra tip.

Last week I flagged Olympic Baretop as a dog that could go well last week in the Irish Examiner Stake at Thurles and he won at 2/1 in a fastest of the night time. He won't be that price tomorrow night unfortunately but if he does a 1.71 sectional again there is not a dog in Ireland that could go with him to the bend so in this field, even at slightly odds-on, I fancy Paul Hennessy's runner to win in trap to line fashion

RECOMMENDATION: 10.02 Thurles OLYMPIC BARETOP

Early on the card at Thurles East River appeals if reproducing his best form, but he is probably best watched.

RECOMMENDATION: 8.17 Thurles NO BET

Down in Cork the Macroom Motors Stake kicks off and the Barrys Tea 750 Final is up for decision. I won't advice any bets but Burgess Og and Ferdia Bound should not be opposed.

RECOMMENDATION: Cork NO BETS

SATURDAY 6 YTD: 32/75;  PROFIT +4.40pts

Profits for the blog on a bloody night for punters

Windy Millar, Bandicoot Tipoki and Shelbourne Aston crashed out of the Derby, while hotpots Flying Winner (1/5) and Boherna On Air (5/4) got tubbed on the undercard.  Aston's defeat was like watching a loved one getting beaten - sad eh? A real favourite of mine.

But I made profits.  I laid Flying Winner, I backed Wise Thought, I had a small bet on Shelbourne Denny. And the two dogs I gave you tonight won easily - Merry May at 2/1 (debut win in 2934 by 15 lengths) and Affleck Elite at 11/10.

So I am slowly edging towards a green May.  The 4.85pts profit tonight brings me to a deficit for the month of just 0.77pts.  Shouldn't be bragging too much about a loss but after 3 poor months I feel I am getting the hang of this tipping lark again after an awful Spring.  Added to my recent improvement in results on the dogs I have made a couple of good calls on football (not blogged).

2 for tonight

Merry May, a pup from a talking litter, making his debut. Qualified in fast. Expect this pup to win tonight. Following the manaboutdogblog mantra 'do not back odds-on puppies', if by some freak of nature this dog is even money or bigger, I recommend a bet.

RECOMMENDATION: MERRY MAY Harolds Cross Race 3 (IF EVENS OR BIGGER)

I saw Affleck Elite put in a very impressive trial at Wimbledon 3 weeks ago. He looks to continue his good return to racing at Sheffield tonight. Worth a small investment.

RECOMMENDATION: AFFLECK ELITE Sheffield 9.14