m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Lay Barnfield Brooke

I can see Barnfield Brooke getting no run in her race tonight at Oxford in front of the Sky cameras.

RECOMMENDATION: 8.50 Oxford LAY Barnfield Brooke (to lose 1 point)

2009 Dogs P&L: -11.66pts :  268 settled bets  :  89 winners  : 179 losers  : 33.21% strike rate

2008 Dogs P&L: +35.86pts : 442 settled bets  :  124 winners  : 318 losers  : 28.05% strike rate

Tennis shelved

I have decided to stop betting on tennis.

I did well prior to this year but I have made massive losses on the courts this year and have decided to put it on hold along with football.

Let's face it - the following record is pitiful, and it's probably just as well that Tomas Berdych dod not winn yesterday as he could have paid me off at 22/1 and I would have been green for the year and continued deluding myself.  2008 was good - probably a false indicator - and it set me up for a fall. No disaster really but time to take stock.

2009: 57 bets  :  11 wins  : 41 losers  : 4 traded for no p/l : 1 pending  : -23.17pts loss

2009: 16 bets  :  7 wins  : 8 losers  : 1 traded for no p/l : 0 pending  : +15.68pts profit

Tonight's Cesarawitch Final Sky Card - Selections Thread

19:40 - William Hill on 0800 44 40 40 Stakes 450m

Alfie Sparra  R F Yeates 
Attykitt Admiral  S R Gresham (Poole)
Heavenly Club (m) A M Kibble   
Declans Lad (m) J A Rowe (Unattached)
Mountjoy Ruby (w) M A Wallis (Harlow)
Blitz (w) D R Stevenson (Unattached)

20:00 - William Hill On Sky Text Page 603 Stakes 595m

Greyfox Millie  N Colton (Swindon)
Westmead Pal  P J Rosney (Nottingham)
Parkwest Glider  A E Gardiner (Hove)   
Swift Stirling (w) L L G Magnasco 
Droopys Taffy (w) O D Kueres (Belle Vue)
Rockchase Samy (w) P W Young (Romford)

20:15 - William Hill Radio on 08712 444 666 Stakes 450m

Parkmore Elite  M A Wallis (Harlow)
Cape Grace  S M Buckland (Hall Green)
Timber Ted  D J Allen (Unattached)
Lethal Ace (m) S A Cahill (Hove)
Freedom Obama (m) O D Kueres (Belle Vue)
Freedom Emma (m) R F Yeates 

20:35 - williamhillradio.com Stakes 250m

Kisskissbangdang  M H Massey
Matts Mentor  D R Pruhs (Peterborough)
Robbie Rocks (m) J T Foster (Wimbledon) 
Greenlough Speed (m) A R Bullen (Unattached)
Officer Donagh (w) C Allsopp (Monmore)
Minnies Tyrana (w) H J Dimmock (Peterborough)

20:50 - williamhillcasino.com Stakes 845m

Barnfield Brooke  P B Philpott (Yarmouth)
Goulane Bess  K D Turner (Perry Barr)
Gas Hawk  P W Young (Romford)
Dromana Becky  B D O'sullivan (Crayford)
Seamies Gambler (m) P W Young (Romford)
Vatican Iona (w) P J Rosney (Nottingham)

21:10 - williamhillarcade.com Stakes 595m

Razzmatazz  S A Howard (Coventry)
Directors Chair  M A Wallis (Harlow)
On His Way  D J Atkins (Henlow)   
Little Jig  R A Baker (Coventry)
Southwind Harry (m) K Billingham (Monmore)
Hovex Boy (w) A E Gardiner (Hove)

21:25 - williamhillpoker.com Stakes 450m

Brickfield Class  R J Gilling (Swindon)
Barnfield Rocky  S R Poots (Unattached)
Milldean Buster  S A Cahill (Hove)
Farley Legend  A Ali (Unattached)
Hillcross Orion (w) A M Kibble 
Silverduf Jet (w) H J Dimmock (Peterborough)

21:45 - williamhill.com Cesarewitch Final 645m

Bada Who  E Gowler (Peterborough)
Melodys Comet  R F Yeates 
Heavy Weather  P R Foster (Swindon)   
White Blaze (m) P W Young (Romford)
He Went Whoosh (w) A E Gardiner (Hove)
Romeo Turbo (w) D P Firmager (Coventry)

Racing is live on Sky Sports 3 on 30/06/2009 @ 19.30pm from Oxford.

Roddick v Berdych

I am going to back Roddick to win 3-1 at 3/1 with Betfair and 3-2 at 6.4/1 with Betfair.  This is just as insurance but my 22/1 is still alive and kicking.

RECOMMENDATION: RODDICK 1pt to win 3-1 (Betfair 4.0)

RECOMMENDATION: RODDICK 1 pt to win 3-1 (Betfair 7.4)

Come On Berdych - a win this afternoon will be worth about 10pts to me in real terms.  I have 22pts if he wins the quarter - I can lay and cash in to the tune of probably 8-10pts if he makes the quarter final. The only loser for me is Roddick in straight sets.

What would you do?

I thought I was stemming the tide of relentless loss, but a bad night at Shelbourne leaves me 10pts in the red for June - a fifth successive losing month is on the cards.

But I look like I could just get a win at Wimbledon.

I am on Tomas Berdych at a whopping 22/1 to win his quarter and he faces Roddick today and is expected to lose.  I can lay him at under 5/1 on Betfair.  I could lay the complete bet and make over 4.5pts (provding he loses to Roddick or Hewitt).  Or I could be greedy and hold and hope for 22pts profit.

The other alternative is I could back Berdych to win a set today to win my stake back.  If he is beaten I think he will get in the scoreboard at the very least. He has played Roddick 4 times winning twice. He retired hurt in one of his defeats and lost 3-1 in the other.   If I covered the bases by backing Roddick to win 3-1 at 4/1 and 3-2 at 7.4/1 It could make sense - if Berdych was to lose by either of these scorelines today I would break even if I split my liabilities across these two. And if he were to win.....

Ana Ivanovic - I have her backed at 15/2 to win her quarter. She is trading at about 5/1 on Betfair as she faces Venus Williams today.  I'd be sick if she won after laying her - so not sure what to do here. I might trade for a free bet.  Ana is 100/30 to beat Williams today.

I backed Caroline Wozniacki at 4/1 to win her quarter final. She faces Lisicki today and is 2/5 to win that match and face Safina in the Quarter Final.  Caroline is trading at 9/5, and about 2/1 on Betfair.  I am loathe to cash this one in just yet and will ride the storm. If facing Safina in the quarter final she will be about 6/4 or even shorter.

Aeroplane Ruso to Jet In?

Apparently Ballymac Ruso is coming in on a jet tonight from London to Tralee for the Race Of Champions.

On paper I think Ruso wins. Guaranteed a clear run to the bend, a luxury afforded no other dog in the race, he should win at the track he was schooled at.  And odds of 2/1 with Boylesports are massively tempting.

But he is arriving in a jet!  The last dog I remember doing this was Westmead Hawk who was hotly fancied to win the Dundalk International a few years ago, but got very worked up on the jet and didn't run.

For that reason, no bet is recommended.

RECOMMENDATION: TRALEE 'RACE OF CHAMPIONS' NO BET

Corporate Attack to win Corn semi

Recommendation: 10.25 Harolds Cross Corporate Attack 15/8 Paddy Power

Saturday Extra

I did not want to overburden my Saturday 6 this week so these 3 dogs will be carrying the manaboutdog shrapnel tomorrow night (it might be all I have left)

Recommendation: Almost Chilli 9.55pm Shelbourne Park

Recommendation: Winch Woody 10.24pm Romford

Recommendation: Lleytons Dote 10.25pm Shelbourne Park

Saturday 6 (27.6.09)

Well I did a bit of fighting talk last week and it paid off.  After bragging about my tipping prowess at Shelbourne Park I did not disappoint with 3 winners from 3 and a nice 3/1 winner down in Thurles. The 2 Sunderland bets knocked some gloss off but I made 4.75pts profit on the night and brought my year's balance back into the black.  My NAP and NB selections won and my performance on these since I introduced them a month ago is decent - NAPs 4/4 (100%) +4.57 pts NBs 2/4 (33%) -0.43pts

This Saturday night I head to Ringsend for a fabulous but very tricky card supporting the final of the Sporting Press Irish Oaks. 

First of all, a couple of dogs that I won't tip up, but they maybe worth having a small interest on Saturday are Lleytons Dote (likely to be about 5/1), who I think can beat my old pal Dundrum Minor and likely market favourite Farloe Newborn, but I will leave alone as it looks a tough one.Winch Woody is due to get back to winning ways at Romford and it looks very possible.  Almost Chilli looks brilliantly drawn in the 9th race at HQ - perhaps throw these 3 into a small stakes patent.

Race 7 at Shelbourne is a massive race, with Mesedo Blue, Advantage Johnny and Wise Thought clashing. One to savour.

I know Stevie Locke thinks a lot of his pup Bonville Johnny, and he could be a price in his 2nd round heat of the Galway Oran Majestic Open Unraced Stake, where he takes on one of the outright favourites, Exciting Times (trained by Owen McKenna).  As it's pups I could not back Exciting Times at what will be odds-on (or near enough) and Bonville Johnny is a value selection if not an over confident monster monster selection.

RECOMMENDATION: GALWAY R10 BONVILLE JOHNNY (IF ODDS-ON, NO BET)

It's been a little while since we saw this lady, but she left a big impression the last night I saw her. Droopys Kina is a star in the making in my opinion and looks tailor made for 575 and more. I recommend a decent bet on this girl on Saturday night and I will be hoping she can get my weekend off to a good start.  if she is odds-on I will not bet.

NAP RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R1 DROOPYS KINA (IF ODDS-ON, NO BET)

Black Gnat produced a great run in the first round of the Corn Cuchaillan but was knocked out in the same race as Droopys Moira.  Watching the video he never really got a chance to get going and I think he is definitely worth a punt at a decent price.  If Black Gnat is over 5/1 I recommend a half-point each way bet on him, if he is under 5/1 I will have a straight bet.

RECOMMENDATION:SHELBOURNE PARK R3 BLACK GNAT (0.5pt EACH WAY IF OVER 5/1 , OTHERWISE 1pt WIN)

Seamus Graham has developed a lovely team of young dogs and should be feared in the majors come the Autumn.  King Style has some electric form up at Dundalk, if that translates well to HQ (it should seeing as he qualified in Ringsend) then he will have a massive run in him on Saturday night. He will be opposed by another youngster coming down the road from a Dundalk challenge, Westmead Grant, who is drawn inside him, but I don't think he has got his trapping boots on just yet, and I fancy the Brett Lee pup to get first run.

RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R4 KING STYLE

Droopys Moira is a young bitch and she was stepped up to 750yards very quickly. She was beaten and not disgraced by Hello Hippy last time out, but I think she is drawn to win this race as she is not completely devoid of early pace and should exert her influence in this race, tracking Almost Daring and leaving him behind after the 3rd bend.

NB RECOMMENDATION:SHELBOURNE PARK R5 DROOPYS MOIRA (IF ODDS-ON, NO BET)

Am somewhat reluctant to get involved in the big race, but Maireads Fantasy has made me a few bob over the last few weeks, although I hope she breaks like she did last week.  If she gets first run on Skywalker Queen she should win although a word of warning to punters, if it is a close finish, Skywalker Queen who runs wide in the home straight, is likely to get the nod in a photo, as it certainly favours the near side in tight ones.

Lady Glenard looks likely to be at the bend around the same time as Maireads who should keep a wide enough course to avoid trouble and open up down the back straight. Skywalker Queen is capable of a 28.30 run too on last week's performance so it should be quite some final.  Ms Firecracker's record run for an Oaks Final of 28.54 looks in big danger at the weekend.  I tipped her up at 16/1 if you remember.

RECOMMENDATION:SHELBOURNE PARK R8 IRISH OAKS FINAL MAIREADS FANTASY

 

YEAR TO DATE SATURDAY SIX RECORD: 45/107 (42%);  +0.36pts

NAPS 4/4 (100%)+4.57pts
NBS 2/4 (33%) -0.43pts

YEAR TO DATE MANABOUTDOGBLOG SHELBOURNE PARK RECORD: 32/52 (62%) +16.58pts

My TV Trophy card selections

RECOMMENDATION: 8.00 OFFICER DONAGH 2/1 William Hill

RECOMMENDATION: 8.35 Lay PLAN at SP (currently favourite at 9/4 with Stan James) to lose a point

RECOMMENDATION: 9.25 Lay FARLOE REASON at SP (currently favourite at 2/1 generally) to lose a point

RECOMMENDATION: 9.45 0.5pts EW VATICAN IONA 10/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2)