What would you do?

I thought I was stemming the tide of relentless loss, but a bad night at Shelbourne leaves me 10pts in the red for June - a fifth successive losing month is on the cards.

But I look like I could just get a win at Wimbledon.

I am on Tomas Berdych at a whopping 22/1 to win his quarter and he faces Roddick today and is expected to lose.  I can lay him at under 5/1 on Betfair.  I could lay the complete bet and make over 4.5pts (provding he loses to Roddick or Hewitt).  Or I could be greedy and hold and hope for 22pts profit.

The other alternative is I could back Berdych to win a set today to win my stake back.  If he is beaten I think he will get in the scoreboard at the very least. He has played Roddick 4 times winning twice. He retired hurt in one of his defeats and lost 3-1 in the other.   If I covered the bases by backing Roddick to win 3-1 at 4/1 and 3-2 at 7.4/1 It could make sense - if Berdych was to lose by either of these scorelines today I would break even if I split my liabilities across these two. And if he were to win.....

Ana Ivanovic - I have her backed at 15/2 to win her quarter. She is trading at about 5/1 on Betfair as she faces Venus Williams today.  I'd be sick if she won after laying her - so not sure what to do here. I might trade for a free bet.  Ana is 100/30 to beat Williams today.

I backed Caroline Wozniacki at 4/1 to win her quarter final. She faces Lisicki today and is 2/5 to win that match and face Safina in the Quarter Final.  Caroline is trading at 9/5, and about 2/1 on Betfair.  I am loathe to cash this one in just yet and will ride the storm. If facing Safina in the quarter final she will be about 6/4 or even shorter.

Comments

[Johnny Moyles]

was trying t osquare my book on ana but there is no money on the exchanges to lay her to win her quarter so i looked at backing venus to cover my stake but she is as low as 1.46

let it ride - come on ANA!!

am trying to work an angle on Berdych - he is 1/4 to win a set so no wiggle room there - i might back roddick to win 3-1 and 3-2 instead which will leave me 3 points in arrears but unless he beats berdych 3-0 I am on a winner really as he will be down to 6/4 or something when facing Hewitt if he wins

[Johnny Moyles]

ana retired injured losing 1-6, 1-0

[Johnny Moyles]

Caroline out 4-6, 4-6

So 3 bets all lost so far - but the big win is to come next - the only way I lose is if Roddick wins 3-0

To recap - I had 4 bets on Wimbledon - the first 3 have lost

The 4th on Berdych at 22/1 rides on the next match and I have had 2 bets to counter that bet. Come on Berdych!

If Roddick wins 3-1 my Wimbledon ends in a 2pt loss
If Roddick wins 3-2 my Wimbledon ends in a 1.4pt win
A win for Berdych will mean he is in the QF vs Hewitt or Stepanek (Stepanek up a set so far) - I should clear 8-10pts or if I let it ride 17pts - which I will be inclined to

So remember i do not want a 3-0 Roddick win or I will be on bread and water this week suffering a 6pt Wimbledon loss.

Although after all is said and done I backed Murray at the start of the year to win a GS and he looks good for that tbh

[Ken]

Hi Johnny, apologies, I posted some stuff up at lunchtime but it disappeared :-/

Its all theory but the back and lay thing is supposed to take into account the 'value' of both the back and the lay i.e. if 22/1 was good value about Berdych and 9/2 is bad value (to beat Roddick plus A.N Other) ... then you lay. Like I say, thats the theory, personally I like the green screen and tend to bottle it early!

Some other bets you could have considered would have been to lay Berdych for his match against Roddick at around 6/4 taking into account if he won you'd need some ammo for his quarter final.

Backing Roddick for the Championship and laying back as low as you could (but as soon as possible) would have also been an option.

Good luck!

[Johnny Moyles]

Committed the CARDINAL SIN yesterday. I could have greened up and been green for the tournament by a couple of points, but I was looking at my losses at Shelbourne at the weekend and wanted to maximise.

A total fcking disaster if I am honest - the first 6 months of 2009 have wiped the complete 2008 profit out.

[Ken]

I think the trick is to decide at what point you're going to bail out in advance. I mainly dip in and out of a market one round at a time unless something really makes me alter my view. In league type formats I may take a view two or three games in advance but always have an exit point in mind.

Try to treat each bet on its own merits and not let how your other wagers have gone influence your thinking ... keep going mate, I'm great at talking b0ll0cks like this, I'm less great at doing it!