It's about time I registered some profits on the Saturday 6 column, and on the blog in general. So I am taking the bull by the horns and making this a bumper week, playing in 8 races, and this week will be a Saturday 6 Plus week.
This weekend sees the gala card at HQ supporting the Champion Stakes Final, as well as a bumper card down here at Thurles where the Tipperary Cup Semi Finals are up for decision.
To be honest I could easily swerve both meetings - they are ultra competitive. But I have given a lot of thought to all my selections and the bonus I get if I come up trumps here is that the prices will be bigger than normal because the races are so hard to call. HQ's card is breathtaking and 6 of my favourite dogs in training are all on the card - Shelbourne Aston, Accordello, Mesedo Blue, Dundrum Minor, Advantage Johnny and Westmead Grant. I really should not have a bet this week at all and simply enjoy a feast of racing, but ......
My NAPs and NBs are in profit since I started doing them, and this week I need to go in hard as they say. Faypoint Man is NAP material and is a BIG price.
I would love Shelbourne Aston to win, but I dont think he will. The track in Shelbourne Park is running ludicrously fast at present - last week it was +30 or +40. They won't rate it fast though. But that puts Aston doing 30.30 or 30.40 so he will need to improve 50 spots to be near the form he was at this time last year. Back to Faypoint Man. He has never once ran a race in the red jacket. I subscribe to the view that Trap 1 at most tracks but in particular HQ is NOT a ping box. Most dogs break moderately from it. But Faypoint Man is not a pinger. And he has the slow starting (but hugely talented) Barefoot Bryan in the 2 box. In the white sheet is kennelmate Barefoot Bolt who is lightening to the bend and will have his supporters. But he runs middle and this will be the telling factor in a race I see being decided by who is at the front coming out of the 2nd bend. That can only be Faypoint Man who is as fast a dog as there is in Ireland at present (College Causeway notwithstanding). Fatboyz Nodrog will have claims but I feel he has to lead and can't see him heading Bolt. Shaneboy Lee is very fast but I don't see him reproducing last week's run.
NAP RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R9 CHAMPION STAKES FINAL 1pt WIN FAYPOINT MAN
Racing starts early at HQ this weekend and that is to fit in all 12 races. In the curtain raiser I think Uncle Ollie will take all the beating. He is a pup and will start as favourite. I will back him if he is not odds on.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R1 1pt WIN UNCLE OLLIE (If not odds on)
Kiltrea Mandy looks a good thing - my only reservation comes through the fact there are 4 wide seeds in this race which should give Has Wings in the red box plenty of room to build a lead early on. For that reason I won't play in race 2.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R2 NO BET
I would not be surpised to see Daring Lee win the 3rd race. He got no run whatsoever last week - but I won't chase that loss and will just watch this one. An interesting runner in this one is Bush Paddy in stripes. Owned by the Irish players at Reading (and Kevin Doyle), this dog just out of puppy status was a nice type when in the UK. His 29.02 trial last week was nothing to write home about though.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R3 NO BET
Race 4 is an intriguing one. Valentia Rover is running well but I don't think he starts well enough to play a part here. Lleytons Dote is a fine servant, but can throw in a duff performance. But the more I look at his card I think he is the type of dog that can produce a big run when afforded the luxury of a switch of tracks. He is capable of Derby class times, and is my selection to make the bend here. But that won't be the end of the race. As already mentioned Valentia Rover is slow away but a powerful runner, and in the black sheet a favourite of mine Elouisa, who is running better than ever despite being a four year old, and will be finishing strongest of all. For that reason I am going to throw in a googlie this week with a strange combination of bets in the one race. I should get paid.
I fancy Lleytons Dote to win or be very close if he traps. Therefore I advise a 1pt win with the books. But I also fancy Elouisa to run a blinder and be finishing very strong. 575 is possibly the ideal trip for this bitch. So I will be playing on the Tote and having a nice little bet that she will be placed. And for the fun of it I will play small on an all-ways trio on this pair and Valentia River to fill the frame.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK R4 LLEYTONS DOTE 1pt WIN; ELOUISA 1pt PLACE (on the Tote); ALL WAYS TRIO 2-3-4 (0.5pts in total on the Tote)
There is oodles of pace on the inside in the Champion Stakes Plate Final and I think Jemmy Doodlebeag, Riverside Kid and the bulletlike Archaton Pine are destined to collide. Pat Curtin's Urney Twins could be the cheif beneficiary and as a bitch in form she merits plenty of respect. Curtin also sends out Castlehill at in trap 5 and he has returned to form of late. Personally I like the look of Sean Mulcahy's Corn Cuchaillan Winner Corporate Attack out in 6. He is capable of a better break than he has shown of late, and at odds that are likely to be very attractive, he has to be worth a small each way bet. €5000 to the winner is superb prizemoney - well done Boylesports.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK RACE 6 CORPORATE ATTACK 0.5pts EACH WAY
I recommended that Wise Thought should be opposed last weekend and it's pity I couldnt lay him on the exchanges. But that was last week. This week Wise Thought has a tricky draw with Advantage Johnny likely to head Martin White and Carly Philpott's dog to the bend. On the inside Oran Classic, Broadacres Turbo and Fane Basher will be involved in their own little early paced battle and trouble is a possibilty. That leaves my old favourite, one of my favourite dogs in training, a dog that has won this blog a lot of cash in the last year, the great Accordello. Beaten but not disgraced on his last 2 outings, Lar Kinsella's handy sized dog has the heart of a lion and for me is the best drawn dog on the card on Saturday. Get on.
NB RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK RACE 7 1pt WIN ACCORDELLO
Directly following the main event, punters are treated to a race that includes some beautiful pups. Westmead Grant and Mesedo Blue would be favourites of mine, but this race includes the flying Ardera Power and Baby Daddy Cool. Some reputations will come undone in this race. Mesedo Blue is my idea of the winner but cannot play - it's too tough.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK RACE 10 NO BET
Race 11 to me looks like a sure fire win for Maireads Fantasy. The fact that she is in with Leger winner Bar Blackstone, Joe Dunne Memorial Winner Oakfront O Seven and Oaks Runner Up Lady Glenard means Maireads will start at a decent price for the first time in yonks. She is in trap 6 which means she could miss the kick, but she has not raced for a month and is sure to be well tuned up for this brilliantly put together race - well done the Racing Office at HQ!. Lady Glenard could beat her, but I think Maireads holds the aces.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK RACE 11 1pt WIN MAIREADS FANTASY
The bumper is a race I will avoid. I think Almost Chilli is well drawn but another favourite of mine Dundrum Minor is running here and his record in the bumpers at HQ is phenomenal, Farkie Newborn will start as favourite. An interesting runner goes from trao 2. Kilkenny Kauto, a Feb 07 dog with just 2 runs on his card, won in 31.14 over this trip at Clonmel on Sunday night. That is flying. This dog was the result of a breeding between Brett Lee and Betathan Pebbles, a breeding that made the papers as ownership of the dam was hotly disputed and the Gardai were involved. Trap 1 Mohogany Rumble broke the 550 clock at Clonmel last week - the son of Ace Hi Rumble can move although Clonmel needs to be rated fast now too.
RECOMMENDATION: SHELBOURNE PARK RACE 12 NO BET
So on to Thurles. The Semis of the Tipperary Cup will draw a big crowd and there are some cracking supporting races.
Pukka Babe could be worth backing in the 2nd Semi Final of the 840 stake, but I will watch this one. Instead the opening Semi Final is more attractive. I took Shelbourne Jazz up to Galway for an 810 trial last week and he will come on a ton for the run. I fancy him to run well here.
RECOMMENDATION: THURLES R4 1pt WIN SHELBOURNE JAZZ
The Tipperary Cup Semi Finals are wide open, the first one I couldn't pick a winner from. But the 2nd one, despite having most of the betting market principals involved, looks set up big time for St Louis Spirit. the son of Droopys Scholes can take advantage of likely trouble on the rail and from his trap 5 berth, can make all here.
RECOMMENDATION: THURLES R10 1pt WIN ST LOUIS SPIRIT
An 8/1 winner with Corporate Attack (I got 16s!) and 9/4 Lleytons Dote.
Accordello ran well in 2nd Elouisa just missed out on a place, SHelbourne Jazz led but got trouble off the last bend.
A tiny loss on the week of 0.35pts for the blog but made money in real terms
Posted by: johnny moyles | July 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM