m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

NFL 2009/10: Week 9

This is a mammoth week.  Dallas go to Philadelphia in a Divisional battle.  Miami also go to divisional rivals when they visit the Pats who return after a bye-week.  Arizona are in the Windy City where a win will do wonders for the postion at the top of a tight group, and my accumulator, which also includes the out of sort Giants (also in the NFC East with Dallas and the Eagles).  Giants MUST win this week and they will although the visiting Chargers won't roll over. Pittsburgh in Denver is another massive game.  Baltimore in Cincinatti too!

And with all these crucial match ups it becomes nearly impossible to find betting propositions.  But with all these close games the spreads will possibly be there to be attacked if you have a strong contrary opinion to the layers.

I'd love to back Arizona with confidence but I fear for them in Chicago especially when the Cards are not protecting Kurt Warner. Would not be surpised if Warner and Fitzgerald have a stormer but will not be tempted.

I think Cincinatti can use homefield advantage to beat the Ravens but the Ravens had a massive result last week. I'd love to take the Bengals with the points but they only reeive 2.5 so in effect if the Ravens win by a field goal the bet is dead.  For that reason I see no reason to bet on the spread, and I am not that confident of backing the Bengals straight.  Will leave alone and take pointers - the Ravens had a blip but were good last week

I fancy Dallas' chances on the road at the Eagles in Sunday's late game. They are 13/10 with a few firms and I just don't like Philadelphia's team this year. OK they are 5-2 and top of the division, but the teams they have beat were the useless Tampa, Kansas and Carolina, plus the inconsistent Redskins and the Giants who have lost the plot of late.  I think Dallas are definitely worth backing and will go for the straight bet.

RECOMMENDATION: DALLAS TO WIN 13/10 BOYLESPORTS

Miami are a massive price to win at 47/10 in New England and I know the Patriots are shit hot but Miami played well last week and the 10.5 pts spread is enticing and I will play.

RECOMMENDATION: MIAMI TO WIN (-10.5) EVENS EXTRABET

The wheels came off the Denver train last week and the Steelers visit the Broncos this weekend and Pittsburgh have the perceived edge.  I can't work the bookies out though as they only give them a 3pt advantage yet the home team are well priced at 27/20 with Boyles

RECOMMENDATION: DENVER TO WIN 27/20 BOYLESPORTS

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 23 bets 14 wins Profit +7.30pts
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts
NFL 2009 YTD 28 bets; 16 wins; Profit +9.00pts

NFL 2009/20: Wk 8

Well I continue to pick the winners - 3 nice ones last week all very comfortable.

This week I am in danger of maybe getting complacent - 2 games in particular jump out at me.

Resurgent New York Jets are back at home after 3 games on the road. They were wobbling but they came back with a bang last weekend when they whooped the raiders 38-0 in Oakland. They had let 'three-n-o' become 3-3 and the season looked iffy.  The Dolphins registered just their second win of the year when they edged the Jets by 4pts in Miami 3 weeks ago.  Not putting too fine a point on things, being a divisional game, both teams can do massive things to their standing with a win. And Miami Dolphins' play-off chances will be all but dashed if they are beaten.  Rex Ryan will have learnt by the defeat in Miami, and if the Jets are to go into their bye-week in 4-3 as opposed to 3-4, expect the Meadowlands to be rocking. BIG GAME!

I will stick my neck out here and say that I think the Jets will win handy.  Their running game is getting going and complimenting rookie Sanchez. I think Stan James 12pts at 11/4 is very nice indeed, with a saver on the more standard -3.5pts available with the majority of firms.

RECOMMENDATION: NEW YORK JETS (-12pts) 11/4 Stan James

RECOMMENDATION: NEW YORK JETS (-3.5pts) EVENS General

Not sure what has happened Baltimore Ravens - they have a 3 game losing streak - but those games were away at in form Pats and Vikings, and a loss at home to flying Bengals, Saying that, Denver's 6 game winning run has seen wins on the road at Dallas. This game is scary though - Ravens despite their 3 defeats are ranked 5th in points scored, 5th in yards - so how do you match them against the Broncos, who after all are the No.1 ranked defense in the league. They allow only an average of 11pts per game.

The key to the game is whether Joe Flacco can get loose and I don't think he will. Broncos will eat up the Ravens run, and therefore odds of the Denver Broncos winning are, frankly, disrespectful to a team undefeated almost half way through the season.  I forecast a dour, low scorer.

RECOMMENDATION: DENVER BRONCOS 13/8 Stan James

RECOMMENDATION: TOTAL POINTS UNDER 41.5 EVENS Totesport

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 19 bets 13 wins Profit +9.30pts (MARGIN 49%)
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts (MARGIN 35%)
NFL 2009 YTD 24 bets; 15 wins; Profit +11.00pts (MARGIN 46%)

NFL 2009/10: Week 7

Am trying to keep in front - this week is TOUGH!!!

Chicago go to Cincinatti in a real tough heads up - I make both teams even but Bengals are at home must be worth a few points.  Over/Under 42pts - who knows? I will go for Cincinatti.

Boyles go 10/11 Bengals to win straight which is a price not bettered even on the spread 1 or 2 points generally.

RECOMMENDATION: Bengals 10/11 Boylesports

Dallas have a 'must win' game in Arlington and although I realise that is not always a factor in the final result, I believe the bye week will have sorted a few things (Romo especially) and a defeat is unthinkable. Expect Jason Witten to be heavily involved as well.

RECOMMENDATION: Cowboys (-3) 9/11 Coral

I think the Cardinals are under-rated as they go on the road to the Meadowlands to face the Giants.  Cards have a great 'D' against the run and that will be very important. 13/5 Cardinals is massive - i will ignore the 6.5pts spread - Warner, Fitz, Breaston, Hightower - they will score 25pts at least.

RECOMMENDATION: Cardinals 13/5 SkyBet

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 16 bets 10 wins Profit +4.97pts (MARGIN 31%)
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts (MARGIN 35%)
NFL 2009 YTD 21 bets; 12 wins; Profit +6.67pts (MARGIN 32%)

NFL Week 6

2 from 4 last week and a loss of 0.15pts.

This week I was considering betting on the unders(38.5) in the Cleveland - Pittsburgh game and think Cincinatti could cover the spread (-4) home to Houston but instead I will just take these 2 peaches in the live games.

RECOMMENDATION: Arizona (+2.5) @ Seattle Evens Totesport

RECOMMENDATION: NY Giants (+3) @ New Orleans 11/10 VCBet

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 14 bets 9 wins Profit +4.97pts (MARGIN 36%)
NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts (MARGIN 35%)
NFL 2009 YTD 19 bets; 11 wins; Profit +6.67pts (MARGIN 35%)

NFL Accumulator

I did my pre-season ante-post bets on various markets on this year's NFL.

Now I have seen a few games I am going to do a four team divisional accumulator.

New York Giants are 5-0 and New Orleans Saints are 4-0. They are priced at 1/2 and 1/3 respectively, best prices are at Ladbrokes.

Denver are the surprise act as they are 5-0 as well, but their price even if it does appear a little short at 4/6, also with Ladbrokes, is worth taking. They have a 3 game advantage over their divisional rivals the Chargers (2-3) so I am including the Broncos.

So far so good, 3 odds-on shots.

Arizona started slowly but bounced back to form after their bye-week and at 2-2 are only 1 game behind the very poor at the weekend 49ers (3-2). The division also has the Seahawks (2-3) but I am including Arizona at 11/8 even though 6/4 is available at other firms, because Ladbrokes have the best prices on the short ones.

So the accumulator Giants, Broncos, Saints and Cardinals is a massive 6.92/1.

RECOMMENDATION: GIANTS, BRONCOS, SAINTS AND CARDINALS ACCUMULATOR 2pts @ 6.92/1 LADBROKES

NFL Week 5

Thankfully the virus that has affected my betting in the first 3/4s of 2009 has found that NFL is actually immune to it.

I got all 3 bets up last week, and a similar story the previous week.

This week I think the bookies have it sewn up in most cases - I really fancy the Broncos to hold the Patriots to a low score but the overs/unders at 41 is leaving little room for error, and the 3pts handicap is very skimpy indeed. I will swerve this one.

Peyton Manning is on fire at present - possibly the best on current form in the NFL.  I saw the Titans 2 weeks ago and they were dire.  Their season is all but over and I believe the bookies are making a mistake putting them within 3 points of the post-season bound Colts.All but one firm go 10/11 -3.5pts but Coral stick their neck out and go 15/16.  The Colts should win by a lot more than 3 points.

RECOMMENDATION: INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 pts CORAL 15/16

I don't know why but I like the Bengals.  I think Baltimore will be sick after letting the Patriots off the hook, and and any negativity will play to the visitors' benefit.  I don't doubt that the Ravens are worthy 1/4 favourites, but Vegas is giving the Bengals 8pts and I am not convinced the Ravens will put this game to bed before the final quarter. What I am going to do is take a different approach and in effect, bet on a slow start by the Ravens. The half time point spread sees the Bengals recieving 6pts and there is not a heap of difference between 6 and 8.

RECOMMENDATION: CINCINATTI -6pts at Half Time Bet365

I really think Washington are getting too much flak, and for that reason they are a big price (7/4) to win at average at best Carlolina. In fact it's two teams out of sorts - but one is 7/4 and the other is 1/2. Get on. The Panthers will be losing this one, but lets hope their cheerleaders (pictured) have something to cheer about - they are play-off material!

RECOMMENDATION: REDSKINS 7/4 Ladbrokes

Will go for another cheeky treble - they are paying off. This one is just under 5/2.  The Jets are 10/11 at the Dolphins who are not New Orleans, while Dallas have to win in Kansas City at 3/11.  Jacksonville continue to be under-rated. Yes they are favourites but I'd make them 1/3 and not 3/7 which Betfair have them at. No other firms price this one so I will have to take the 3 teams on the exchange multiples. 

RECOMMENDATION: TREBLE JETS, COWBOYS AND  JAGS 3.47 (2.47/1) Betfair

 

NFL 2009/10: Week 4

 
Back from the States where I witnessed the Jets go 3-0 for the first time in a few years and the 3rd time in their history.  QB Mark Sanchez is the first rookie in the history of the NFL to go 3-0. It was a good game, if not explosive.  Jets look very solid.  I did well to avoid the overs/unders on the game - I put the game spread at 43pts, there was 41pts, and as I thought there would be only 35 I didnt play.

 
   

I was well on the button last week profiting +4.11pts from my 3 bets.

Jacksonville won by 7pts at 17/10 +1.7pts

49ers in Minnesota was probably the game of the season so far culminating in a bit of Brett Favre magic as the Vikings prevailed 27-24 with a TD with 2 seconds left.  The 51 points was as I predicted, and I got evens (over 40.5) with Boylesports +1.0pts

The treble was easy money = ok 1.41pts is not massive but if you made that your bet of the weekend a 7/5 sure thing is not to be sniffed at - Cowboys winning by 14, Giants winning 24-0 at Buccs, Chargers winning by 10 in Miami +1.41pts

My joy at seeing these results was tempered by finding out that despite scoring a whopping 120pts in my ESPN Fantasy League, I still got beat. GGGRRRR.  Stout NYC is a great sports bar just near Madison Square Garden - after the Jets match I was able to watch 6 NFL matches simultaneously, as well as Premiership highlights and baseball as well. Sports Heaven I think it is called.  I have been to this bar on each of my 3 trips to New York - i highly recommend it - a great selection of beer and grub too.

 
So what will happen in Week 4?  My first instinct is that the Jets at the Saints will be a low scorer with Rex Ryan's Gang-Green stopping the Drew Brees train in its tracks. I don't want to get carried away by the Jets hype, but I think they can realistically hold the Saints to 24 points and that makes the 46pts over/under market very interesting.

I think the Jets could win the game and the 13/5 straight bet with Ladbrokes and the 6.5pts even money bet offered by Totesport really appeal to me. But I will stick with the overs and unders market.

RECOMMENDATION: JETS & SAINTS UNDER 46.5pts 9/10 CORAL

Not a lot to like about Tennessee and if I am honest Dallas at the weekend and I think there will be at least one of these 2 teams beaten and will go for Jacksonville and Denver to continue their good form by taking them on the spreads.

RECOMMENDATION: BRONCOS +2.5pts 11/10 Totesport

RECOMMENDATION: JAGUARS +2.5pts 11/10 Totesport

NFL 2009/2010 Season: 7 bets 4 wins Profit +2.02pts (MARGIN 29%)

NFL 2008/09 Season: 22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts (MARGIN 35%)

NFL 2009 YTD 12 bets; 6 wins; Profit +3.72pts (MARGIN 31%)

NFL 2009/10: Week 3

Houston have started better than many thought, but I think this could be one for the punters.

Jacksonville Jaguars are receiving only 3.5pts on the spreads so to back them at 10/11 does not appeal to me.  17/10 for the Jags to win straight up appeals to this punter.

RECOMMENDATION: JAGUARS TO WIN IN HOUSTON 17/10 BET365

I'm not mad keen on backing teams giving points away so will avoid the Giants minus 10 or whatever these jokers are looking for. I got stung on the Giants a fortnight ago.  They will win in Tampa no problem (home of a very tasty troupe of cheearleaders incidentally.  I will back the Giants in an accumulator.

Looking for a couple of short (but not 1/7 Baltomore short) sure things is not that easy after 2 weeks of in and out results for punters.  But I think Minnesota hosting San Fransisco is a must avoid unless we are looking at the overs/unders market. Back to that in a minute.

San Diego can't lose to Miami - the Dolphins are fairly bad and the Chargers have the home advantage that makes the 2/5 palatable.

Dallas came unstuck in the Jones Mahal last week in front of 105,000 people WOW!! They won't this time around. Romo would want to focus a bit mind.

RECOMMENDATION: ROLLING TREBLE TOTAL ODDS 1.41/1

• Sun 6pm GIANTS TO WIN AT BUCCS 4/11 William Hill
• Sun 915pm CHARGERS TO BEAT DOLPHINS 2/5 Ladbrokes
• Tue 1.35am COWBOYS TO BEAT PANTHERS 5/19 Paddy Power

I am a very lucky boy as I will be in New Jersey on Sunday to watch the Jets take on the Titans.  I think it will be a close game and I think it will be a low scoring game - Rex Ryan has really tightened things up and Jets could be on for a winning season with a bit of luck. I will be purchasing a Sanchez shirt anyway - I think this kid is a star in the making.  I was at the Jets v Cardinals last year and there were many many touchdowns, this year 3 or 4 and we will be doing well. I shouldn't be hoping for a low scoring match but that's what we will get.  But saying all that the books have it as a low scorer too at 37 points which is about what i have it at - i think 35 points. But I was working on the premise that the makeup would be about 43 . No bet me thinks

RECOMMENDATION: TITANS AT JETS NO BET

So the Vikings are sailing on the good ship Brett - I cant complain as he has steered my fantasy team to 2 straight wins on the ESPN Betfair League. But I wouldn't bank on Favre to keep performing.  But there will be points galore. Frank Gore got 35 points on his own last week alone.

RECOMMENDATION: NINERS AT VIKINGS OVER 40.5 POINTS EVENS BOYLESPORTS

NFL 2009/2010: Week 2

2 losers last week. Not impressed backing the Giants who were 13 up with 10 to go, conceded a TD and then played the clock down, screwing me an thousands others who backed them to cover the 6.5 spread. Dangerous game that covering the spread lark.

Seattle went well last week and I think they will beat San Francisco handily.  They are 11/10 straight and that is good enough, no need to avail of a percieved 1.5pt disadvantage at the cost of .1 of a point.

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt SEATTLE 11/10 STAN JAMES

Brett Favre started last year well at the Jets and he started well enough last week with his new franchise the Vikings.  This week expect Minnesota to go MENTAL and Favre to score a few TD passes. Detroit are as bad as it gets in the NFL and defensively, they are abysmal.

This could be a game where the umpires could see substitutions as the amount of times the arms are raised vertically could be very high indeed.  And I also think the spread is too low and will go for a bet on the spread of 10 points - Brett and Harvin could go crazy and wont be easing up.

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt VIKINGS TO SCORE OVER 4 TOUCHDOWNS 5/1 WILLIAM HILL

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt VIKINGS (-10)

NFL 2009/2010: Week 1

At long last, it's back.

I am always wary when betting when seasons return as form is hard to read (at the best of times) so I am searching for little gems. 

New York Giants had a ropey pre-season but at home to the Redskins is always a big game for the Giants.  The loss of Plaxico Burress will not help but they are probably about right at 1/3 to start the season in style.  I think the spread of 6.5pts is about right too and although I am tempted by the alternative spread of 12.5pts at 8/5 (offered by Bet365) I will play safe and go for the Giants to start the season well and win by more than 6.5pts.

RECOMMENDATION: NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5pts) 10/11 general

Arizona Cardinals lost all 4 pre-season games and I would have hoped for a bigger price than 1/3 for the visit of the Niners, but I have a real good vibe about Kurt Warner, Larry Fitz and co this season, and will take the same action I took on the Giants.  San Francisco were not far behind the Cards last year so this game has a bit of a grudge element to it too.

RECOMMENDATION: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5pts) 10/11 general

manaboutdogblog American Football 2008/09 Season Record  22 bets; 13 wins; Profit +7.62pts (MARGIN 35%)

 

manaboutdogblog American Football 2009 Record 5 bets; 2 wins; Profit +1.70pts (MARGIN 34%)