m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Del Potro

Juan Martin Del Potro looks value at 13/8 to beat Verdasco 2-0 in the 02 Arena

RECOMMENDATION: DEL POTRO 2-0 13/8 Betfred

Tennis Double

US Open Womens 2nd Round

L.Zheng 2/5
A. Bondarenko 8/13

Recommendation: Double 1.26/1 BOYLESPORTS (just over 5/4)

Murray to beat Federer

Andy Murray is peaking in time for his season's goal the US Open which is around the corner.

In the semi final of the Cincinatti Masters which he won last year he should beat Roger Federer.

He is 2/1 generally to win 2-0 but at just under even money I will back him straight.

RECOMMENDATION: ANDY MURRAY TO BEAT FEDERER 1.94 Betfair

Tennis shelved

I have decided to stop betting on tennis.

I did well prior to this year but I have made massive losses on the courts this year and have decided to put it on hold along with football.

Let's face it - the following record is pitiful, and it's probably just as well that Tomas Berdych dod not winn yesterday as he could have paid me off at 22/1 and I would have been green for the year and continued deluding myself.  2008 was good - probably a false indicator - and it set me up for a fall. No disaster really but time to take stock.

2009: 57 bets  :  11 wins  : 41 losers  : 4 traded for no p/l : 1 pending  : -23.17pts loss

2009: 16 bets  :  7 wins  : 8 losers  : 1 traded for no p/l : 0 pending  : +15.68pts profit

Roddick v Berdych

I am going to back Roddick to win 3-1 at 3/1 with Betfair and 3-2 at 6.4/1 with Betfair.  This is just as insurance but my 22/1 is still alive and kicking.

RECOMMENDATION: RODDICK 1pt to win 3-1 (Betfair 4.0)

RECOMMENDATION: RODDICK 1 pt to win 3-1 (Betfair 7.4)

Come On Berdych - a win this afternoon will be worth about 10pts to me in real terms.  I have 22pts if he wins the quarter - I can lay and cash in to the tune of probably 8-10pts if he makes the quarter final. The only loser for me is Roddick in straight sets.

What would you do?

I thought I was stemming the tide of relentless loss, but a bad night at Shelbourne leaves me 10pts in the red for June - a fifth successive losing month is on the cards.

But I look like I could just get a win at Wimbledon.

I am on Tomas Berdych at a whopping 22/1 to win his quarter and he faces Roddick today and is expected to lose.  I can lay him at under 5/1 on Betfair.  I could lay the complete bet and make over 4.5pts (provding he loses to Roddick or Hewitt).  Or I could be greedy and hold and hope for 22pts profit.

The other alternative is I could back Berdych to win a set today to win my stake back.  If he is beaten I think he will get in the scoreboard at the very least. He has played Roddick 4 times winning twice. He retired hurt in one of his defeats and lost 3-1 in the other.   If I covered the bases by backing Roddick to win 3-1 at 4/1 and 3-2 at 7.4/1 It could make sense - if Berdych was to lose by either of these scorelines today I would break even if I split my liabilities across these two. And if he were to win.....

Ana Ivanovic - I have her backed at 15/2 to win her quarter. She is trading at about 5/1 on Betfair as she faces Venus Williams today.  I'd be sick if she won after laying her - so not sure what to do here. I might trade for a free bet.  Ana is 100/30 to beat Williams today.

I backed Caroline Wozniacki at 4/1 to win her quarter final. She faces Lisicki today and is 2/5 to win that match and face Safina in the Quarter Final.  Caroline is trading at 9/5, and about 2/1 on Betfair.  I am loathe to cash this one in just yet and will ride the storm. If facing Safina in the quarter final she will be about 6/4 or even shorter.

Wimbledon 2009

I have done a lot of head scratching and there is not too much for me to get excited about betting wise.

The men's event looks fairly cut and dried, but the women's tournament is wide open.

Thomas Berdych (22/1 with Ladbrokes) to win the 1st Quarter will entice me into a small bet.  He is taking on Roddick, Del Potro, Hewitt and Ferrer in this section but I feel he is too big at that price.

Fernando Verdasco was tempting at 18/1 (also with Ladbrokes) to win the 4th Quarter but Federer and Tsonga are probably a bit much for him.

RECOMMENDATION:  Berdych to win 1st Quarter. 1pt win 22/1 Ladbrokes

The ladies is intriguing this year.  Sharapova and Ivanovic are both on the comeback trail, and the Williams sisters top the betting - but I think they are there to be got this year.  Then there is the No 1 seed Dinara Safina who crumbles under pressure, and Kuznetzova, who doesn't.  Throw in Jelena Jankovic, screamer Victora Azarenka and rising star Caroline Wozniacki and it is a real tough year to back a winner.

Safina and Kuznetzova are drawn to meet in the quarter finals, but I think Danish star Caroline Wozniacki can upstage them both.  Wozniacki is 4/1 with SkyBet to win her quarter and I will have a bit of that.

Also, as I mentioned already, I think the Williams sisters are there to be beaten, and whilst Jelena Jankovic would be most people's idea of a challenger in the 2nd Quarter, I was encouraged by Ana Ivanovic's showing last month and at 15/2 she is certainly a value bet, if not a cert.

RECOMMENDATION:  Wozniacki to win 1st Quarter. 1pt win 4/1 SkyBet
RECOMMENDATION:  Ivanovic to win 2nd Quarter. 1pt win 15/2 BetFred

Tomorrow afternoon Nicholas Kiefer faces world no 37 Fabrice Santoro in his first round match.  Santoro was a semi finalist in Eastbourne recently but his form is not great and is sliding down the rankings.  His 2009 record reads 8 wins from 17 matches, although he did win a low ranking event in South Africa in April.

Kiefer is ranked 35 in the world, and his year has been poor enough (6/14) - but he was unlucky at Roland Garros losing in 5 sets to Ferrer.  But this bet is based on Kiefer's form against Santoro - he has beaten him in his last 3 matches, including here at Wimbledon in 2007 (straight sets) and Kiefer pushed Djokovic in his next match too (he didnt play last year).

The only fly in the ointment is that Kiefer retired injured a fortnight ago in Germany, but I am sure that was precautionary.

RECOMMENDATION:  Kiefer to beat Santoro 8/13 Paddy Power

Roddick at Queens

Andy Murray and Andy Roddick are on course for a showdown at Queens Club tomorrow.
Murrat is 1/2 whilst 4 time winner Roddick is 9/4.

RECOMMENDATION: ANDY RODDICK TO WIN AEGEON CHAMPS 9/4 BETFRED

Go Dinara

My French Open book is not bad but the first 5 months of this year have been a disaster. I laid my bet on Safina in today's women's final at 9/10 after backing her at 4/1. She is 4/9 to win today and I will get 3.1pts profit which is much needed.

Juan Martin Del Potro failed at the semi final stage yesterday after being matched at 6/4 to win the tournament outright. I advised a bet at 10/1 to lay off - I hope some of you got on.  I traded for a free bet - again failing to take advantage of a good spot by myself.

 

Del Potro value at 10/1 for Roland Garros honours

Victor Chandler have made a rick IMHO as they have priced up the hugely in form Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro at 10/1 to win the French Open. He has a soft Quarter Final with rank outsider Tommy Robredo and with Nadal and Djokovic already out, the world No.5 should only be half that price.

In fact he is trading at 6/1 on Betfair and his best price elsewhere is 6/1.  I have just got on over the phone at 10/1 - get in there now before someone realises.

This is a bet to lay as his record vs the big 4 is awful, but if he wins his quarter he will be about 4/1 for honours - or you can simply lay it now on Betfair for instant rewards.

RECOMMENDATION: DEL POTRO TO WIN FRENCH OPEN 10/1 VCBET (Bet to lay)

I tidied up my book a bit today.

I laid Safina at 1.9 (9/10) today for a free bet. If she wins that is 3.1 times my stake with no penalty if she loses and I laid Serena at the same price 1.9 (9/10) for a free bet.  If she wins that is 1.1 times my stake with no penalty if she loses.  I did this slightly differently laying her in her quarter final match with Kuznetsova instead of on the 4th Quarter market.