m a n a b o u t d o g b l o g

Ana looking good

Glimpses of her best form this week.
She is 4/6 to beat the most annoying grunter/screamer on the circuit Victoria Azarenko.

RECOMMENDATION: ANA IVANOVIC 4/6 Boylesports

Fernando Verdasco to make light work of Davydenko

Verdasco is flying at present and I think the bookies have overestimated Nikolay Davydenko

There are various handicap bets available today ranging from 2.5-4.5 games in vafour of underdog Davydenko.Bet of the day is available currently on Expekt.com.  Verdasco minus 1.5 games is priced at a luxurious 6/7.  For those without accounts with this firm Betfair currently price Fernando at 11/9 minus 4.5 games.

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt VERDASCO to win (HCap minus 1.5 games) 6/7 Expekt.com

RECOMMENDATION: 0.5pts VERDASCO to win 3-0 11/4 William Hill

RECOMMENDATION: 0.5pts VERDASCO to win 3-1 3/1 Bet365

Na Li vs Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova faces Na Li today and I expect it to be very close.

Na Li is 21/20 to win and I will recommend a bet at this price, however Sharpapova has gone 3 sets in all her 3 matches so far whereas the Chinese star has won in straight sets throughout and may struggle if the game goes to 3 sets.

I see that Na Li to go 1 set up and lose to Maria is 5/1 with William Hill. I think this is worth a half point saver bet.

RECOMMENDATION: NA LI vs MARIA SHARAPOVA:1pt NA LI to win 21/20 Victor Chandler
RECOMMENDATION: NA LI vs MARIA SHARAPOVA: 0.5pt SHARAPOVA to lose the first set but win the match 5/1 WILLIAM HILL

Rusty comeback for Sharapova?

Maria Sharapova has been off for a long time. Instead of being world no.1 like she was a few years back, the Russian beauty is outside the top 100.

She returned in Warsaw last week winning a couple of matches but steps up to the Grand Slam plate now facing Anastasiya Yakimova. The Bulgarian is not top class but has notched a couple of low grade clay competitions this year and could well take a set off Maria.

The favourite is 1/4 and Yakimova is 6/5 to win a set. But I prefer the look of the 7/4 that William Hill are offering on the match going to 3 sets.

RECOMMENDATION: MATCH TO GO TO 3 SETS 7/4 WILLIAM HILL

French Open Tennis 2009

I made a nice profit last year backing Ana Ivanovic at 12/1 pre-event. Since then she has imploded on court and plummeted in the world rankings.

She showed some sign of improvement this spring and she should be kept the right side of in the early stages this year. But she is not the winner this time around.

Dinara Safina is the tournament favourite and deservedly so. She was very strong in Madrid and the World No.1 is so athletically superior to the majority of her opponents on the circuit that she has such a big chance this time around she has to be considered for outright glory.

RECOMMENDATION: Dinara Safina to win French Open 4/1 Blue Square

Last year I thought Maria Sharapova would have won her quarter but just failed, and this time around the Russian who has been off the scene for a long time cannot really be backed with any confidence.  She is in the same quarter as Venus Williams and Vera Zvonareva and that cannot be a help to her.

What is in her favour though is that Zvonareva has lost form from her great start in January and February. I backed Vera at 20/1 each way and have since laid off the win part of my bet at 13/1.  I still think she has a good chance of going all the way but the money does not suggest that. She has drifted back out to 20s and 25s now.

But on the subject of Sharapova, I will be trying to get her in the early rounds backing outsiders to win sets etc. Watch this space.

The women's scene is far more open than the men's as can be witnessed by the carousel that is the World No.1 spot.  A couple of young players that I have been following closely are the Dane Caroline Wozniacki who is available to back at 5/1 to win her quarter. This section contains the out of sorts Jalena Jankovic who is available to back at 6/4.

Daniella Hantuchova is overpriced at 33/1 and is worth a bet, soI'm going to have a speculative (ie small) bet on her and a nice play Caroline Wozniacki to win this Quarter.

RECOMMENDATION: Hantuchova 0.5pt to win the 3rd Quarter 33/1 Bet365

RECOMMENDATION: Wozniacki 1pt to win the 3rd Quarter 5/1 Stan James

Serena Williams has a good record here and to see her quoted at 2/1 on Betfair this afternoon to win the 4th Quarter is amazing (€56 can be matched at present). Svetalana Kuznetzova is fancied by most pundits to make the semi-finals but at Evens she is no value at all, and Serena could just do it again.

RECOMMENDATION: Serena Williams to win the 4th Quarter 2/1 Betfair

In the mens event I guess it looks like Nadal and Federer and I can't get excited over anyone elses chances to be honest - i suppose it is not beyond the realms of possibility that maybe Novak could pull off a shock at a big price.

RECOMMENDATION: MENS FRENCH OPEN NO BET

MANABOUTDOG TENNIS LEDGER: 43 SETTLED BETS: 17 WINS: PROFIT +4.72pts

2009: 34 SETTLED BETS: 9 WINS: LOSS -10.96pts

2008: 16 SETTLED BETS: 8 WINS: PROFIT +15.68pts

Novak screwing me

He beat Verdasco today in three sets costing me 3pts.  I am making a public resolution now never to oppose Djokovic again. He did for me in Miami, now Monte Carlo.

Verdasco to beat Novak

Fernando Verdasco will beat Novak Djokovic tomorrow -as I have previously posted he is the rising star this year. He wiped the floor with Ferrer today.

RECOMMENDATION: VERDASCO TO BEAT DJOKOVIC 2-0 BOYLESPORTS 9/4

Verdasco is 12/1 to win the competition with Boylesports, Paddy Power, Extrabet and Sporting Index and if he beats Djokovic tomorrow he will be a lot shorter.  He has no names left in his half of the draw after Federer's exit today, and Verdasco is flying at present.

Back him each way with Sporting Index. No he probably won't beat Nadal if he meets him in the final, byt 1/4 odds 1-2 make this a MUST BET. And who knows if Murray beats Nadal, Verdasco could very well win this competition on the clay.

RECOMMENDATION: VERDASCO TO WIN MONTE CARLO MASTERS 1PT EW SPORTING INDEX 12/1

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis

This ATP Masters 1000 Event starts today and David Ferrer(pictured) will be my idea of a big name facing an early-ish exit.

He was 5th in the world last year and down to 12th now.  His conversion rate on break points is very average (1in 4) yet when he is serving he only saves half of the breaks. He has to be opposed - he will fall early.

He faces Feliciano Lopez in the first round who has won their last 3 encounters (5-2 Lopez overall) - although the only time they have met on clay Ferrer did win.  Ferrer did not win a set in any of his last 3 matches with Lopez.  Lopez has started 2009 slowly which is a slight worry.

Even is Ferrer is successful in this matc, I fancy him to bite the clay in the 2nd round against Marc Gicquel.

Lopez can be backed at 4.4 on Betfair right now.

RECOMMENDATION: FELICIANO LOPEZ 3.4/1 Betfair

Tennis Schedule Spring 2009

I have made slow start on my tennis in 2009, although I have two juicy Ante Post bets riding on Zvonareva to win the French Open (20/1 EW into 12s) and Murray to win a Grand Slam (5/4 still that price).

30 settled bets in 2009 have produced a net loss of 6.46points as I have only selected 9 winners. I have looked a bit at my strategy (on all sports) recently as I cannot understand why in 2007 and 2008 in particular I made such good profits, yet this year I am losing.

I think I have been way too conservative. I know I am advising a higher volume of bets but the kind of bets I am doing are not like the ones I was doing last year.  I have done a high number of tennis and football games with prices in around the Evens mark.  A period of poor results will knock you big time in that strategy.

When it comes to tennis I think I do better in the majors as I can pick a couple that I think will perform well and bet on them to win their quarter or make the final etc, but in regular tournaments or Masters events the markets aren't there to play that way.  The recent Masters event in Miami was not a disaster by I did lose over 3 points - mostly by underestimating Novak Djokovic.

SONY ERICSSON EVENT RECORD: 11 SETTLED BETS: 4 WINS : LOSS -3.14pts

MANABOUTDOG TENNIS LEDGER: 39 SETTLED BETS: 17 WINS: PROFIT +8.72pts

2009: 30 SETTLED BETS: 9 WINS: LOSS -6.96pts

2008: 16 SETTLED BETS: 8 WINS: PROFIT +15.68pts

SPRING 2009 SCHEDULE (MEN) 

MONTE CARLO ROLEX MASTERS 12TH APRIL (MASTERS 1000 EVENT) : OUTDOOR CLAY

BARCELONA OPEN 20TH APRIL: OUTDOOR  CLAY

ITALIAN BANCO INTERNAZIONALI BNL MASTERS, ROME 27TH APRIL (MASTERS 1000 EVENT) : OUTDOOR CLAY

BMW OPEN, MUNICH 3RD MAY : OUTDOOR CLAY

ESTORIL OPEN, PORTUGAL 3RD MAY : OUTDOOR CLAY

SERBIA OPEN, BELGRADE 4TH MAY : OUTDOOR CLAY

MADRID MASTERS (MASTERS 1000 EVENT) 10TH MAY : OUTOOR CLAY

AUSTRIAN OPEN, KITZBUHEL 17TH MAY : OUTDOOR CLAY

WORLD TEAM CHAMPS, DUSSELDORF 17TH MAY : OUTDOOR CLAY

ROLAND GARROS FRENCH OPEN, PARIS 25TH MAY (GRAND SLAM) : OUTDOOR CLAY

 SPRING 2009 SCHEDULE (WOMEN) 

FAMILY CIRCLE CUP, SOUTH CAROLINA 13TH APRIL (PREMIER EVENT) : OUTDOOR GREEN CLAY

BARCELONA LADIES OPEN, 13TH APRIL : OUTDOOR RED CLAY

PORSCHE GRAND PRIX, STUTTGART 27TH APRIL (PREMIER EVENT) :  INDOORS RED CLAY

GRAND PRIX DE SAR, MOROCCO 27TH APRIL : OUTDOORS RED CLAY

ESTORIL OPEN, PORTUGAL 4TH MAY : OUTDOORS RED CLAY

MADRID OPEN 9TH MAY (PREMIER EVENT) : OUTDOORS RED CLAY

WARSAW OPEN 18TH MAY (PREMIER EVENT) : OUTDOORS RED CLAY

STARSBOURG INTERNATIONAL, FRANCE 18TH MAY : OUTDOORS RED CLAY

ROLAND GARROS FRENCH OPEN, PARIS 25TH MAY (GRAND SLAM) : OUTDOOR CLAY

Fools Rush In

I laid my bet on Murray today on Betfair at 1.49. But why people are backing him at that price (there has been €1.13 million matched on the win market already) i don't quite understand.

Murray to win 2-0 is a best priced 11/8 (Stan James) and 2-1 is a best priced 3/1(Ladbrokes).  So if you split your stake on these two outcomes you will be getting either 11/16 or 6/4 depending on what happens.  On Betfair it is 1.34/1 and 3/1 respectively which makes me wonder why people are backing Murray at such a short price when surely the value is in the set betting.

NO BRAINER!  Then it's down to Murray.